CME Fedwatch data, weighted average calculation by Mish.

A hike on May 2 is a given. The market perceives a 30.1 percent chance of a one more hike in June. 

The light green bars show the panic around the bank failures in May. The market has since put more rate hikes back on the table as noted by the bars for April 11 and May 2.

Yet the weighted average expectation for December is now 4.65 percent vs 5.18 percent for June. That about a half point of cuts vs the June terminal rate.

March 2024

The market is expecting the Fed will cut rates to about 4.18 percent by March of 2024.

Believe that?

The Fed Admits a Mistake in Collapse of SVB, Seeks More Power Anyway

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