From CME:

Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold black), from futures as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), and of 8/5 noon ET (light blue), in %. Source: Fed, CME, author’s calculations.

Note the ten-year Treasury yield also fell at open:

Note: Central Time.

Addendum:

Fed funds path relative to CBO June projection:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 2: Fed funds (black), CBO projection (blue), WSJ July survey mean end-of-quarter (pink square), CME futures implied as of 7/26 (green), as of 8/5 noon ET (red), all in %. Source: Fed, CME, WSJ survey, and author’s calculations.

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