10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.

Over this week, the end-of-year CME Fed funds futures has dropped 15 bps. By year’s end, the Fed funds rate will be down 78 bps.

Figure 1: Fed funds (bold black), CME futures implied as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), in %. Source: Fed via FRED, CME, author’s calculations.

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