There were only two noteworthy takeaways from the February existing home sales report:

(1) like mortgage applications, permits, and starts, existing home sales responded to lower mortgage rates (a decline from just over 7% to just above 6% between last October and January):

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(2) As usual, price changes lag sales; for the first time since the pandemic, the median house price actually declined -0.2% YoY from $363,700 to $363,000 (remember: this data is not seasonally adjusted):

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This simply confirms the data we have gotten from the more important new home construction data. I do think there is some good news here, in that we may very well have seen the bottom in this metric as well as in permits, starts, and mortgage applications. This does not mean a recession is not going to happen, but it does suggest it will not be prolonged and may not be very deep.

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