Photo by alexzaitsev 

The EUR/USD forecast shows weak price action as traders stick to the sidelines ahead of more Trump tariffs. The pair rose only slightly after news of progress towards a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, news of poor US consumer sentiment barely moved traders. 

The euro has remained in a tight range this week as all focus shifts to Trump’s April tariffs. Traders prefer to stay on the sidelines due to uncertainty over Trump’s next moves. The US president has proposed tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals.

At the same time, markets expect reciprocal tariffs and levies on imports from Canada and Mexico. However, reports at the start of the week indicated a softer stance, with the president willing to exempt some countries from tariffs. Still, it remains unclear which these countries are. 

Elsewhere, the US brokered a deal to halt sea attacks and targets on energy. This massive step towards a ceasefire deal would boost the euro. However, the price barely reacted to the news.

At the same time, data in the previous session revealed poor consumer sentiment in the US. The report indicated uncertainty about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy.

EUR/USD key events today

Traders do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Therefore, the price might remain in thin trading.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Indecision keeps price near the 1.0800 support

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price remains in a tight range near the 1.0800 key support level. Moreover, the bias is bearish, with the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI under 50. The tight consolidation is a sign of indecision. At the same time, it is a sign that bulls and bears are battling for control. 

Although the price recently broke below the 30-SMA, bears still need to break below 1.0800 support to start making lower highs and lows. A bearish RSI divergence signaled a decline in bullish momentum. This also meant the trend could reverse to the downside. However, if bulls only needed a pause, they might return to retest the 1.0950 resistance level. On the other hand, if bears take charge, the price will detach from the 1.0800 and fall to revisit the 1.0602 support level.

More By This Author:

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: Japan's Economy Fears Tariff Impact
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Economic Contraction Weakens Pound
EUR/USD Outlook: EU-US Trade Tension Triggers Uncertainty