Earnings Growth Based On Debt And Buybacks? Totally Unsustainable

My grandfather was never rich. He did have some money in the 1920s, but he lost most of it at the tail end of the decade. Some of it disappeared in the stock market crash in October of 1929. The rest of his deposits fell victim to the collapse of New York’s Bank of the United States in December of 1931.

I wish I could say that my grandfather recovered from the wrath of the stock market disaster and subsequent bank failures. For the most part, however, living above the poverty line was about the best that he could do financially, as he buckled down to raise two children in Queens.

There was one financial feature of my grandfather’s life that provided him with greater self-worth. Specifically, he refused to take on significant debt because he remained skeptical of credit. And with good reason. The siren’s song of “you-can-pay-me-Tuesday-for-a-hamburger-today” only created an illusion of wealth in the Roaring Twenties; in fact, unchecked access to favorable borrowing terms as well as speculative excess in the use of debt contributed mightily to the country’s eventual descent into the Great Depression. G-Pops wanted no part of the next debt-fueled crisis.

Here’s something few people know about the past: Consumer debt more than doubled during the ten year-period of the Roaring 1920s (1/1/1920-12/31/1929). And while you may often hear the debt apologist explain how the only thing that matters about debt is the ability to service it, the reckless dismissal ignores the reality of virtually all financial catastrophes.

During the Asian Currency Crisis and the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management (1997-1998), fast-growing emerging economies (e.g., South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, etc.) experienced extraordinary capital inflows. Most of the inflows? Speculative borrowed dollars. When those economies showed signs of strain, “hot money” quickly shifted to outflows, depreciating local currencies and leaving over-leveraged hedge funds on the wrong side of currency trades. The Fed-orchestrated bailout of Long-Term Capital coupled with rate cutting activity prevented the 19% S&P 500 declines and 35% Nasdaq depreciation from charting a full-fledged stock bear.

Did we see similar debt-fueled excess leading into the 2000-2002 S&P 500 bear (50%-plus)? Absolutely. How long could margin debt extremes prosper in the so-called New-Economy? How many dot-com day-traders would find themselves destitute toward the end of the tech bubble?

Bring it forward to 2007-2009 when housing prices began to plummet in earnest. How many “no-doc” loans and “negative am” mortgages came with a promise of real estate riches? Instead, subprime credit abuse brought down the households that lied to get their loans, destroyed the financial institutions that had these “toxic assets” on their books, and overwhelmed the government’s ability to manage the inevitable reversal of fortune in stocks and the overall economy. Just like 1929-1932. Just like 1997-1998. Just like 2000-2002.

Maybe investors have already forgotten the sovereign debt crisis from the summer of 2011. They were called the “PIGS” – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain had borrowed insane amounts to prop up their respective economies. The easy access to debt combined with the remarkably favorable terms – a benefit of being a member of the euro zone – started to come undone. Investors rightly doubted the ability of the PIGS to repay their respective government obligations. Yields soared. Global stocks plunged. And central banks around the world had to come to rescue to head off the disastrous declines in global stock assets.

Throughout history, when financing is cheap and when debt is ubiquitous, someone or something will over-indulge. Today? Households may be stretched in their use of cheap credit, and they have not truly deleveraged form the Great Recession. Yet the average Joe and Josephine have not acted as recklessly as governments around the globe. In the last few weeks alone, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an increase in its bond-buying activity as well as the type of bonds it is going to acquire, Japan has sold nearly $20 billion in negatively-yielding bonds and the U.S. has downgraded its rate hike path from four in 2016 to two in 2016. Add it up? The world is going to keep right on going with its debt binge.

Are we really that bad in the U.S.? Over the last seven years, the national debt has jumped from $10.6 trillion to $19 trillion. In 7 years! If interest rates ever meaningfully moved higher, there would be no chance of servicing our country obligations. We would likely be facing the kind of doubt that occurred with the PIGS in 2011, as we looked for bailouts, write-downs, dollar printing and/or methods to push borrowing costs even lower than they are today.

That’s not the end of it either. The biggest abusers of leverage and credit since the end of the Great Recession? Corporations. There are several indications that companies are already seeing less bang for the borrowed buck. For instance, low financial leverage companies in iShares MSCI Quality Factor (QUAL) have noticeably outperformed high financial leverage companies in the PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (PKW) since the May 21, 2015 bull market peak.

QUAL PKW

It gets more ominous. The enormous influence of stock buybacks by corporations – where companies borrow on the ultra-cheap and acquire shares of their own stock to boost profitability perceptions as well as decrease share availability – may be fading. For one thing, buyback activity has not stopped profits-per-share declines across S&P 500 companies for 4 consecutive quarters (Q2 2015, Q3 2015, Q4 2015, Q1 2016 est).

Equally worthy of note, when the bottom line net income of S&P 500 corporations began to decline in earnest in 2007, buybacks began to decline in earnest in 2008. Bottom-line net income has been deteriorating since 2014, but favorable corporate credit borrowing terms has kept buybacks at a stable level into 2016. Nevertheless, once corporations begin recognizing that the buyback game no longer produces enhanced returns (per the chart above) – that stock prices falter in spite of the buyback manipulation efforts, they could begin to reduce their buyback activity. When that happened in 2008, the lack of support went hand in hand with a 50%-plus decimation of the S&P 500.

US-Buybacks-to-net-income-2016-03-ttm

The ratio of buybacks to net income in the above chart can become problematic when companies spend a whole lot more of their bottom-line net income on share acquisition. Maybe it’s a positive thing as long as stock prices are going higher. Yet FactSet already reports that 130 of the 500 S&P corporations had a buyback-to-net-income ratio higher than 100%. Spending more than you earn on acquiring shares of stock? That means zero dollars are going toward productive use, including human resources, research/development, roll-out of new products and services, equipment, plants and so forth.

Maybe it wouldn’t be so bad if one could forever count on the notion that interest expense would be negligible. Unfortunately, when total debt continues to rise, even rates that stay the same become problematic. Consider the evidence via “interest coverage.” In essence, the higher the interest coverage ratio, the more capable a corporation is at paying down the interest on its debt. Yet if the debt is rising and the interest rates are roughly the same, interest expense increases and the interest coverage ratio decreases. Here’s a chart that shows challenges in the investment grade, top-credit rated universe. You decide.

Interest Coverage

There are still other signs that show a potential “tapping out” for corporations. Corporate leverage around the globe via the debt-to-earnings ratio has hit a 12-year high. Aggressive financing in the expansion of debt alongside additional interest expense is rarely a net positive. On the contrary. Aggressive leveraging typically means a high level of risk. Granted, if corporations were taking on more debt to increase their value via new projects, expansion, new products, growth and so forth, it might represent high risk-high reward. In reality, however, everyone recognizes that the game has been about loading up on debt at ultra-low terms to acquire stock shares – a short-sighted practice of enhancing earnings-per-share numbers for shareholders.

Debt To Earnings

In sum, low rates alone won’t make it easier for corporations to pay off their substantial obligations. Paying down debt is more challenging in low growth environments – 1.0% GDP in Q4 2015 and 1.4% GDP estimate for Q1 2016. Why might that be so? Corporations did not choose to put borrowed money into capital investments that might ultimately help service interest expense. Stock buybacks? Additional stock shares cannot provide the cash flow necessary for debt servicing the way that capital investments can.

To the extent one has equity exposure, he/she would be wise to limit highly indebted, highly leveraged companies. The steadily rising price ratio between QUAL and the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) tells me that investors are wising up. In particular, they’re more concerned by poor credit risks across the stock spectrum. And while QUAL certainly won’t provide bear market protection on its own, it will likely lose less in downturns; it will likely hold its own during up swings.

QUAL SPY Price Ratio

Disclosure: ETF Expert is a web log (”blog”) that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered ...

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Marina Lermolaiva 8 years ago Member's comment

Good comment thread, thanks.

Moon Kil Woong 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Sadly this binge on debt, like consumer binging on debt is actually the result of the work by the man (now woman) behind the curtain. The Federal Reserve is the culprit who not only stalled the economy but has created a table where those who binge on debt and buy back stock and don't grow intrinsically trounce all those running in place to their mad hatter policies that have nothing to do with capitalism and everything to do with socialist ideals applied to economics that don't work. We have entered the managed economy phase of socialism which bankrupts the country without embracing socialism. Something is very wrong with how we run the central bank. Principally it is that we don't run it and Congress cedes its power and authority to it but doesn't elect or have jurisdiction over it. Instead it runs us into the ground and there isn't a thing you can do about it because it's a private firm that hides its shareholders and assets in the public's interest. Hmmm.

You are paying the price of their horrific planned economy methods that is frightfully scared of capitalism and business cycles. Sadly politicians say there is nothing they can do because it is like a act of nature. They made it so by making it so they have no power and thus the public has no say in their increasingly socialist ranting about how its up to them to create jobs by impoverishing investors by crashing interest rates artificially and creating asset bubbles that crash and bankrupt investors who were encouraged by them to take big risks. Then the government enabled it to engage in QE which violates every concept of capitalism which not only devaluates your money but goes to the select few and undermines the vary concept of money. Now it has given a private firm governmental administrative powers to manage those it seeks to enrich. Sadly, we are to blame for not voting out ever elected official in office for such an attack on our well being and demanding a change in the central bank structure to insure corruption and socialism don't thrive in the very dark back room.

Don't blame the companies for following the Fed's market just like you can't blame the investor for not liking the bubble when its being blown. Yet, inevitably, they should realize it's just a great setup to screw those who don't get out when the whistle blows. The fact the Fed is arguing to get rid of the $100 bill and allow it to tax you with negative rates shows signs that it is quite close to blowing that whistle because they can't do more QE while the public is living high on the hog. They care about your interests, but its not the way you think. You're just a side excuse for them to give themselves more money to help your increasingly poor situation.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

I doubt if New Monetarism is socialistic. However, the Fed is constantly planning the survival of the banks. It doesn't care much about the survival of the rest of us, unless it starts impacting the banks.

Moon Kil Woong 8 years ago Contributor's comment

New Monetarism is part and parcel of a planned economy which by its own definition is not capitalistic. It's goal is to supplant free economics with planned/government controlled economics that can be manipulated by those in power. Although it works out sometimes it often results in spectacular catastrophe sooner or later. You have to look outside of the US to witness this.

It is a part of socialism, however, often vary corrupt socialism not bent on enriching the masses but enriching the few at the cost of the country's economy.

I agree on the second half of your comment and hope to see you posting again. You have a good head on your shoulders.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

When you are talking about markets, of course the markets are not as free as they could be. They depend on the Fed for stimulus. My issue is that monetarism, either new monetarism or market monetarism, does not offer stimulus to main street. The real economy is not exactly booming.

World War 2 was a massive stimulus that brought the US out of depression. But when the stimulus ended we as a nation were in a stronger position. So Keynesian stimulus on that scale could cause a big hangover now. Still, I am for some fiscal stimulus.

New monetarism, which the Fed is embracing, is pretty much do nothing but give the illusion, as you say elsewhere, that they want to raise rates.

Moon Kil Woong 8 years ago Contributor's comment

I think we got our wires crossed. I thought your speaking of new monetarism was about zirp and QE which I am referring to. I have no qualms about raising rates back to normalcy although it will pop the horribly giant bubble they have already created and bankrupt many people and companies who they encouraged to unsustainably overleverage.

Raising rates back to normal levels is very old monetarism in my eyes and much more fitting to true sustainable economics and capitalism than where we are today. Sadly the Fed hasn't realized yet that capitalism works fine on its own. What doesn't is gross manipulation of it which often creates worse calamities than not doing anything.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

The New Keynesians want lower rates. The Market Monetarists want GDP targeting. The New Monetarists are more traditional, but do not fear a little deflation. Steven Williamson, St Louis Fed VP, is a New Monetarist. They are fairly hands off other than to keep the money supply up. So, perhaps, the New Monetarism is like the Old Monetarism. I wrote about him here, Moon: www.talkmarkets.com/.../forget-keynesianism-and-market-monetarism-new-monetarism-rules-the-federal-reserve I would like to see a little more stimulus for the people, but not more easy loans. Better pay would be a real stimulus. I don't like the idea of bond rates going negative, although negative IOR may be helpful, not sure though.

Chris Lau 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Sadly, the debt cycle is not anywhere near an end. The Fed is so late and behind the curve. Without rate hikes, it has no room for rate cuts in the future.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Based on reading Stephen Williamson's blog, I don't think they much care, Chris. He seems to be unworried about negative rates, but he talks mostly about small negative rates. When they go deeper, you would think the Fed could be more concerned about unintended consequences.

Moon Kil Woong 8 years ago Contributor's comment

The fed only cares about increasing its power and enriching its member banks primarily the TBTF ones at the cost to regional ones. Their commitment to full employment is rather a crude lie and should have nothing to do with rate policy. Likewise, they seem to like deeper and deeper recessions and problems because it gives them more power and enables them to dump buckets of money on their friends. Expect the next big downturn to be worse than the last and them to demand more bailouts.

The corrupt game doesn't end until you are running naked in the street screaming to escape from Alice and Pauperland.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Clearly, banks are first. I wrote a little article about it that posted today. I would appreciate your comments. It is hard to say where it all is going, Moon.

Gary Anderson 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Interesting article. Stephen Williamson, VP of the St Louis Fed posted that he didn't see excess in the lending now going on. Are we comforted by that view? Seems like there is some recklessness in stock buybacks. And certainly there are auto lending risks. And junk bonds financing the oil patch are dreadful.

But the richer folks own most of the houses so all this weakness and excess debt may not add up to the housing crash. I don't know.