I have long contended the commodities – – crude oil in particular – – will be a much more honest indicator of the forthcoming economic situation than the politically-distorted mewings of people like Powell and Yellen. On the whole, commodities have been slipped lower. Once they broke below the ascending channel, it was deflation time.

The oil index ($XOI) topped out many months ago, and it’s been ever-so-slowly breaking down. A crack of the blue horizontal will send things into a tailspin, no matter what the bone-saw godless maniac MBS does.

Precious metals, likewise, have been breaking down. Here we can see the miners (GDX) failing their intermediate-term support.

It’s no different with the junior miners (GDXJ).

Gold itself has completed a small top and doesn’t have meaningful support until the medium-term supporting trendline.

I’ve got four energy stocks in the Bear Pen (COP, HAL, MRO, SLB) and I own January puts on COP.

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