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Image from CME Fedwatch. 

I thought it would be interesting to see how interest rates odds change from right before the FOMC announcement today to the odds after the FOMC press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell.

The current May odds, pre-FOMC (not shown), are 86.8 percent for a quarter-point hike, with a 13.2 percent chance of the Fed standing pat.

My assessment is the offs of the Fed standing pat are more like 2 to 5 percent. 

Looking Ahead to June

For the June meeting, there is a 12.2 percent chance of a cut. Those odds have been steadily decreasing over the past month.

The odds of a hike are only 6.4 percent. 

Looking Ahead to December

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In the last day, rate cut odds increased across the board. 

All of these numbers my dramatically change after the FOMC press conference. I will post an update later today or tomorrow of the before and after.

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