The Sell-Off Reversal?

Today my home office proved to be a problem. First I got stuck in the elevator, scary enough. I was heading down to get my newspapers which were not delivered by 8 am. Another planned water shutdown by ConEdison means the hand washing routine has to use bottled water and there is no flushing except perhaps in Flushing.

The markets were up at the start on Friday despite the 3.28 million new applications for unemployment payments—an indicator that the odds of a recession have grown. Another factor is the “unprecedented oil glut” cited by Goldman Sachs analysts. Uncle Sam may wind up owning a chunk of our country's airlines in return for bailing them out. That probably means low ball prices will not return soon, making my globe-trotting research costlier.

There were some hints that the third up day would flounder, as gold (GLD) was up, and the VIX index of volatility was over 60.

Despite the A.M. Lopez Obrado bar against Corona beer brewing in Mexico which would provide exports and jobs, which Eduardo reported on yesterday, the new Mexican peso was up over 4% Friday. We will cut our holdings there.

Today I will discuss some of the measures taken by companies we cover to help overcome the economic consequences of coronavirus.

I also write some important information about closed-end fund discounts.

Pharmaceuticals

Prodded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a group of major drug companies have agreed to exchange data to speed up trials to find a drug for the Coronavirus. Among the companies signing up are Eisai of Japan (ESALY); Glaxo (GSK) of Britain; Novartis (NVSEF) of Switzerland; Sanofi (SNYNF) of France, and Bristol-Myers (BMY), Merck (MRK), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) of the US. Merck also donated 300,000 masks to New Jersey, its home state. NY is not getting as much and as the center of the US outbreak is also getting a lowball amount of the $2.2 trillion. GSK fell 2.65% in London today because it no longer gets goodies for SmithKline, being British. ESALY gained 2.83% because it now is a coronavirus play.

Teva (TEVA) is up 2.3% over $8 again. To fund this, Israelis seem to have dumped Compugen Ltd (CGEN) which fell 4.75% before reversing. CGEN is still cheap at $7.25.

Danish drug-maker Novo Nordisk (NVO) announced that it is halting all trials during the coronavirus period. NVO stock rose 6.5% perhaps also because it goes ex-div tomorrow.

Roche (RHHBY) got its Light Cycle 480 DNA amplifier approved by the FDA for emergency assays for the Covid-19 using Quidel's Lyra device. It is up 3.5%.

Astra Zeneca (AZNCF) signed an RNA silencer deal with Silence Therapeutics of Britain. This bodes well for Benitec Biopharma (BNIKF) of Australia which yesterday conducted an online vote to agree to be taken over by its newly formed US parent, still subject to approval by OZ. BNIKF also does RNA silencing. Silence works on rare diseases like beta thalasemia and myelodyplastic syndrome. My warrants are up 0.66%.

My largest US holding, Thermo Fisher (TMO), rose 3.25% after it got the CE mark in Europe for its coronavirus diagnostic test.

Oilpatch

Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) of the Dutch Antilles did a sale and repurchase deal of Caribbean complexity to sell its non-bank funding subsidiary Schlumberger BV to Rustavelico Ltd with a deliver of 2.33% of its stock, debt free. It expects its spending to fall 30% during the virus. The SLB listed share rose 4.66%. SLB was founded in the Netherlands between the wars by a Protestant family from Alsace-Lorraine who were terrified of another move to take the region over by Germany which would have meant SLB would also become German.

Delek Group (DGRLY) sold the remaining 20% of its IDE sub for NIS 164 mn, not enough to make much of a dent in DGRLY debt. I sold.

BP plc (BP) was up another 1.9% earlier but is now down 1.42%. I cannot track Royal Dutch Shell (RYDAF) which is in the ACAT but it is also all over the place, up as high as $33.65 and down as low as 32.01.

Electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is up 5.62% but still below our basis.

Food

Eduardo Garcia writes that bakery MNC Grupo Bimbo (GRBMF) used its revolving credit facility to take $720 mn out of its revolving credit facility. $200 mn of this will be used to pay off a bond due in June. It will use the other $510 mn to provide liquidity during the coronavirus crisis. It has another $1.275 bn in the facility which runs until Oct. 2023. 

Nutrien (NTR) was recommended by Goldman Sachs which also figured out that we will continue to want to eat. The stock of NTR, the Canada fertilizer vendor was at $30 and the target price is $45—all US. The share is up 6.9% today but may go up 50% if GS is right.

Funds

I sold Mexico Equity & Income Fund (MXE) for $7.15 today. The bid was $7.49.

Fibra Uno (FBASF) is thinly traded and had a 2.54% bid ask spread so used a limit order. FBASF is a REIT popular with institutional investors. I am less worried about it than about a closed end fund.

I exited Aurora Investment Trust Plc (AIVTF) at $1.68/sh.

I bought more SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 10-yr TIPS, TIPX. The stock is up 1.6% today on inflation risks. I am trying to also buy US inflation indexed bonds in SPIP, Spider Barclays TIPS ETF.

With Barrons and Lipper unable to tally closed end fund discounts for weekly publication (for the past two weeks), the canny Scots who run Aberdeen funds have sent reporters their own data. CEF Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund, AEF, closed the week at $5.2-5.17 (ask/bid) when its Net Asset Value/sh was $6. The discount was 13.6%.

Aberdeen Asia Pacific Income Fund, FAX, was at $3.45-3.3 when its NAV was at $4.03/sh, a discount of 21.5%. Japan Equity & Income Fund, JEQ, traded at $6.15/6.1 when its NAV was at $7.32/sh, a discount of 17.3%.

Even premium-prone Aberdeen Global Income Fund, FCO was hit, with its price $5.33/5.32 and its NAV at $5.69.

Banks

Banco Santander gained today but the price ranged from $2.71 to $2.64. SAN announced a capital preservation dividend cut yesterday along with some charity by Chair Ana Patricia Botin and the board. It gained 4% in Spain yesterday and 0.38% here.

Finnish financial conglomerate Sampo Oij (SAXPF) is down 0.75%. 

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFG) is up 2.2%.

I am trying to sell Virgin Money UK but am not sure I can.

Mining

Palladium rallied. Johnson Matthey (JMPLY) fell all the same. 

However copper (JJC) is back in vogue and Antofagasta (ANFGF) which mines the red metal in Chile rose 7.43% to over $9. It will pay a 5.7% dividend for 2019 next month.

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