The Bond Market Is (So Far) Unconvinced
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Trump takes military action off the table (for the nonce):
Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 11am CT on 1/21/2026.
The VIX has declined, although currently rebounding. The 10 year bond yield is still way up relative to pre-weekend.
EPU and trade policy uncertainty are up (data through the 20th):
Figure 1: EPU (Baker, Bloom and Davis) (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty (Caldara et al.) (red, right scale). Source: Policyuncertainty.com and Trade Policy Uncertainty, accessed 1/21/2025.
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