Employment Growth Has Flatlined (If We’re Optimistic)
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Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Figure 1: Official nonfarm payroll employment (black), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), Powell conjecture applied to implied preliminary benchmark (violet), implied early benchmark (tan), CPS employment adjusted to NFP concept, smoothed population controls, 3 month centered moving average (green), QCEW seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 in logs (green), all in 000’s. Source: BLS and ADP via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
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