Why You Should Hold Your Horses With Snap Inc Shares And Buy Facebook Inc Instead

Now is Not the Time to Own Snap Stock

Snap (SNAP) shares rose 44% yesterday following the popular Snapchat maker’s initial public offering yesterday. From the eyes of Nomura analyst Anthony Diclemente, the company has gone public at a time when user growth and monetization rates are starting to “ghost” with a considerable drop-off.

In reaction, the analyst initiates coverage on SNAP with a Reduce rating and a price target of $16, which implies a potential downside of close to 35% from where the shares last closed.

For Diclemente, upside for the stock faces hurdles that boil down to the following four points: “1) already slowing growth in daily active users (DAUs); 2) slowing monetization (ARPU) growth; 3) fierce competition from larger rivals such as Facebook (FB), Instagram, and WhatsApp; and 4) rich valuation relative to current and future growth,” and therefore, the analyst asserts, “We see Snap’s revenue opportunity as constrained relative to expectations and, as such, we think shares are fairly valued at best at the IPO price.”

Between sluggish user growth rates restricting the kind of long-term revenue Snap can prospectively generate coupled with steep rivalry, with the analyst pointing specifically to last August’s launch of Instagram Stories, he continues, “As a result, higher monetization per user is likely to be the primary driver of growth, and this too is currently slowing.”

Ultimately, “Lofty valuation demands faster revenue growth despite significantly slower user additions. We believe that Snap should be valued at a modest discount to FB and TWTR multiples at the time of their IPOs in light of slowing user growth and a fierce competitive environment. As such, we do not recommend ownership of the stock,” concludes Diclemente.

As usual, we like to include the analyst’s track record when reporting on new analyst notes to give a perspective on the effect it has on stock performance. According to TipRanks, five-star analyst Anthony Diclemente is ranked #223 out of 4,513 analysts. Diclemnte has a 71% success rate and garners 11.4% in his annual returns.

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Chee Hin Teh 4 years ago Member's comment

thanks for sharing

Cristian Montecinos 4 years ago Member's comment

Why do you have to choose one over the other? Both $SNAP and $FB are profitable stocks to invest in. Looking forward to the future success of both.

Kurt Benson 4 years ago Member's comment

I agree. I already own $FB and plan to hedge my bets and diversify a bit by investing in $SNAP also.

Jared Green 4 years ago Member's comment

You are all over thinking it... #Facebook is the better company without question. And that fact is reflected in the stock price of $136.99. #Snap's stock price is 1/5th that price at $26.92. You can buy 5X the amount of $SNAP as you can $FB.

Barry Hochhauser 4 years ago Member's comment

I'd have to agree with these analysts recommendation. I view #Snapchat as a one trick pony, whose gimmicky self destructing photos are easily circumvented. #Facebook has real innovation and is able to adapt to changing times. #Snap is overrated in my opinion. $SNAP $FB

Ayelet Wolf 4 years ago Member's comment

You are behind the times. #Snapchat just came out with #Spectacles (www.spectacles.com) which are freaking cool! Clearly they do know how to innovate and have even bigger plans for the future. I think #SNAP is the next big thing. #Facebook is yesterday's tech star. $SNAP $FB

Carl Schwartz 4 years ago Member's comment

This is for the entire #Snap company. Not just #SnapChat. Does Snap do anything besides snapchat? Or are they truly a one trick pony, as you said? $SNAP