E TalkMarkets Tuesday Talk: Post-Thanksgiving Reality Check

Good Morning. It is December 1 and we take note to mention that amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the Presidential transition and a blazing market rally, it is also, "World Aids Day". 

Yesterday, the US markets closed down from the record highs recorded in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 29,639, down 272 points, the S&P 500 closed at 3,622 points, down 17 points and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 12,199 down 7 points. Currently, futures for the Dow are up 321 points at 29,951, S&P 500 futures are at 3,660, up 37 points and the Nasdaq 100 futures are at 12,387, up 110 points. Though the current climate in the market seems to be set to follow historical trends for a strong December, with positive vaccine news adding further impetus, some market pundits are cautioning that the strength of the November rally may mute this month's results.

Charles Hugh Smith in his article, 2021 Is Already Optimized For Failure cites 4 warning signs that dispute the "getting back to normal in 2021" line of thought. 

"1) The mRNA vaccines have not been properly tested to answer essential questions...If you wanted to design a testing process that was optimized for failure, you'd end up with this haphazard, hurried process careening toward approval. The trials and testing of the Covid vaccines are not equivalent to those applied to previous generations of vaccines.
2) The fiscal-monetary "solution" being readied for 2021--print/borrow as many trillions as needed to prop up zombie corporations and obsolete institutions--is optimized for failure. The unstated goal here is to save everything that's been rigged to benefit self-serving insiders and never mind the consequences.
3) The sacrosanct "solutions" ...central bank-dominated "markets" and the machinery of politics, are both optimized for failure. The "market" and politics have both incentivized extremes of indebtedness, leverage, corruption, fraud, and waste, all under the happy belief that the banquet of consequences will never be served.
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William K. 1 month ago Member's comment

Very interesting indeed, albeit rather depressing. As for inflation, my gripe is that it destroys the value of my own assets for the benefit of the stock market crowd. Inflation benefits them because it reduces the value of the dollars that they owe. so it becomes an issue of who gets hurt, and who can help us.

and the table demonstrating that inflation is happening right now is rather disturbing also.

As for different systems "being optimized for failure", it does not really appear that they are optimized for anything. The appearance is far more that it is one group considering only their friends and not having any concern for the others. Or it may just be a failure to consider the secondary consequences of most actions.

The unfortunate part is that I see nothing to challenge or dispute. Times are not that good presently, and the course does not seem to be pointed in the right direction. So it is not as encouraging as some tout it to be.