TalkMarkets Monday Chat: COVID-19 Market Uncertainty
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This Monday, TalkMarkets takes a look at what some of our contributors make of current market uncertainty in the wake of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts by the Fed and Central banks to help stabilize the global markets. Among this sea of stormy thoughts, we hope to provide some food for thought, if not calm (which is in short supply) for our readers.
One of the most dramatic events last week came on Friday, March 6 when the Fed yield curves dropped below 1% for the first time as noted by Mike Shedlock in his article "First Time Ever: Entire Yield Curve Crashes Below 1.0%". Mike argues (along with others) that the next move by the Fed will be to drop interest rates to zero and that deflation and $30 per barrel crude is what happens when Fed-sponsored asset bubbles burst.
Doug Noland says that despite future QE moves by the Fed and support by other Central Banks we are on the cusp of witnessing what he calls "The Modern-Day Bank Run" and that we will have a tough time of holding on to our seats in the near future. He further argues that those who want to look for plays in "oversold" bounces based in anticipation of further QE moves do so at their own peril. In most bearish terms he notes that "the scope of global financial excess, myriad imbalances and structural impairment now dwarfs the capacity of central bankers to sustain market confidence, speculative excess and economic growth."
Christopher Lewis writes in "Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Looking For Buyers" to expect the markets to move sideways slightly, based on the strong jobs data reported in the US, but eventually move bearish till we hit what he calls a "buy and hold scenario", but that we are not there yet.
Stavros Georgiadis, in his "US Stock Market Weekly Update", exclusive to TalkMarkets, takes a less bearish tone, noting that any additional moves by the Fed should provide support to the markets and this, in turn, should affect the bond markets, positively as well. Still, he notes that Friday's "strong jobs report exceeding expectations was almost ignored by the stock market."
Michael J. Kramer, notes that "The Markets Are In A Turbulent Mood To Start The Week Of March 9" and that the S&P futures for this morning aren't helping, " with some luck, the S&P 500 futures can stabilize. Currently, they are suggesting a 4.35% decline. The bad news is that we blew right through support at 2,855, and the futures reach the last line of support in the 2800’s, at 2815." (SPY)
As we write, global markets have opened lower and oil (OIL) prices are moving downwards, fast. Looks like we are in for another tumultuous week, no doubt. Keep calm and look for value.
Thanks for bringing these excellent articles by @[Mish Shedlock](user:5141), @[Doug Noland](user:33851), @[Christopher Lewis](user:22494), @[Stavros Georgiadis](user:110798), and @[Michael J. Kramer](user:85698) to my attention.
Thank you, kind regards