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This week we get a lot of important economic data:

 Tuesday: Case Schiller home price index (+4.6% est.), new home sales (+682K est.), & consumer confidence (94.2 est.)

The 30 yr average fixed mortgage rate has fallen from 7.04% in January, to 6.67% today. Not a big move, but maybe enough to spur more demand.

 Thursday: Q4 GDP final revision (+2.4% est.) & goods trade balance

Expect the final revision to confirm the economy grew at a slower pace. But a lot has changed since then, so the market shouldn’t have much response to the data unless something unusual occurs.

The goods trade balance will give us an updated look at how US companies are dealing with tariff threats. January’s trade deficit in goods was a record $155.6 billion.

Net exports is a component in the GDP calculation, so a huge rush of imports makes the total trade deficit increase, thereby reducing domestic growth.

 Friday: Core PCE inflation (+0.3% est.), Personal Income (+0.4% est.) & Personal spending (+0.6% est.), & revised Consumer sentiment

Personal spending will be the main event IMO. January spending was negative and the worst in almost 4 years.

Many are focusing on the drop in sentiment, but this is nothing new. Sentiment has been below the historical average for the last 4+ years, yet spending grew 35% during that time.

So what’s the difference now? My guess it’s the record rise in uncertainty. People expect the worst and the news feeds on this. It was bad enough back in 2022-2023 when people couldn’t keep up with the rising cost of living. But now, they are worried about losing their jobs, on top of the threat of another steep rise in prices.

 On the earnings front, 8 S&P 500 companies will report results. No notables.

 S&P 500 forward PE is 21x (about 23% above its 15 year average

 Expected growth rate is 9.9% down from 12.8% to begin the year

 Price to earnings growth (PEG) ratio is 2.1x (not bad, but not great either)

 Earnings yield is 4.76% vs. 10-yr rate of 4.25%

 Equity risk premium at +0.51% vs. -0.21% at the start of the year

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Internally its not that bad. Only 2 sectors are down YTD. The stuff that went up the most in the last 2 years, is what’s getting hit the hardest. This isn’t unusual.

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YTD US stocks are down -3.8%, but international is up +8.0% and bonds are up +2.6%. Diversification is working.

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The S&P 500 has so far held the support zone I highlighted weeks back. Bulls will need to get it back above the 5750-5785 zone above before they can think about taking back the short term momentum. I suspect we’ll get that retest sometime this week.

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