S&P 500 Forecast: Stretched Ahead Of Meeting Minutes

So, a pullback probably isn't the worst thing to happen. The 50-day EMA is near the 5,450 level and turning higher, so that might be an area where buyers will jump in. On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the 5,700 level, then it's likely that we will continue to go much, much higher.

Nonetheless, markets don't go in one direction forever, and at this point in time, I think we are starting to see people willing to step in and take some profit after a massive move higher from the 5100 level. In general, I think this is a market that is essentially trying to sort out what the Federal Reserve is going to do and whether or not there is an underlying economy that should drive equities higher or if the Fed is going to jump in and save everyone. There is a very important speech on Friday coming out of the Jackson Hole Symposium by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and that could be the next big mover after this.

 

We Might Be a Bit Tired

(Click on image to enlarge)

S&P 500 Forecast Today 22/8: Stretched Ahead of FOMC (graph)

We are looking for a little bit tired and I think that makes complete sense here. We could spend some time bouncing around in a 600 point range, we just don't know, but either way, chasing the market all the way up here is probably going to be reckless until we can clear the 5,700 level, as opposed to buying the dip where you at least get some value.


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Disclaimer: Mr. Christophe Barraud could not be held responsible for the investment decisions or possible capital losses of users. Mr. Christophe Barraud endeavors to provide the most accurate ...

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