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The S&P 500 has held key support and resumed upside following a notable retracement, while today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release adds fresh context to market sentiment. Despite a softer-than-average jobs backdrop amid delayed data releases, bullish technical structures point toward a continuation to new all-time highs.

After a sharp retracement through most of November—roughly a 5–6% pullback—the S&P 500 found substantial support near the 6500 zone, the same area that marked a steep sell-off in early October after tariff fears rattled markets. The recent recovery from this level has been impressive, showing strong impulsive characteristics that not only rejected lower prices but also pierced past diagonal and trendline resistances. This structure suggests bullish energy is still intact and ready to push higher.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rebound looks like the early stages of a fifth wave, potentially launching a new lower-degree five-wave advance. Ideally, the current setback unfolds as a flat correction in wave 2, setting the stage for a powerful continuation to new all-time highs—possibly toward 7000 before year-end if bulls remain in control.
 

Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting left markets poised for direction, and since then price action has been digesting the outcome in a corrective wave (2) that may find support near 6800 before resuming trend. Buyers appear ready to step back in, consistent with a resumption of the primary uptrend.

Today’s U.S. jobs report—the first full nonfarm payrolls release since September—adds further nuance. Ongoing data disruptions caused by earlier government shutdown delays mean labor market releases have been atypical and noisy. Nevertheless, early expectations for November point to modest job creation, well below long-term averages, illustrating a slowing labor market that remains soft but not recessionary.

This softer jobs backdrop may temper expectations for further aggressive Fed tightening, and if the actual NFP print confirms a slow yet positive labor market, equity markets often interpret that as supportive for risk assets—bolstering the case for a continuation of the uptrend in the S&P 500.

In summary, the trend remains bullish, with key technical levels holding and sentiment supported by moderate macro signals. Traders should watch 6500–6800 as critical support before a potential breakout to fresh highs into early 2026.

For more analysis, check our video.

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