Sentiment Swings Higher Despite Declines

Equities have rolled over in the past week with selling hitting a pinnacle when the US government’s credit rating was downgraded by Fitch on Wednesday. In spite of this, sentiment has not taken a hit. The latest survey from the AAII showed 49% of respondents reported bullish sentiment which compares to 44.9% the prior week. With nearly half of respondents reporting as optimists, bullish sentiment sits handily above its historical average of 37.5%.In fact, this week marked the ninth in a row with a bullish sentiment reading above the historical average for the longest such streak since one that ended at 13 weeks long in May 2021.

The increase in bullish sentiment resulted in bearish sentiment to drop down to 21.3% which marks a 2.8 percentage point decline on the week and resulted in the lowest bearish reading since June 10, 2021, when it was 20.7%. Similar to bullish sentiment, that is the ninth week in a row with a reading below its historical average, and that is the longest streak since July 2021.

As a result to the increased optimism, the bull-bear spread ticked up from 20.8 last week to 27.7. That is still below the recent high of 29.9 from two weeks ago but reiterates how investors have an elevated degree of optimism.

Not all of the gains to bulls came from bears. Neutral sentiment also declined this week falling from 31% to 29.7%. That is in the middle of the past few years' range.


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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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