Initial jobless claims have been trending lower over the past couple of months, reaching a nearly six-month low of 221K last week. This week, claims rebounded rising 6K to 227K. Albeit off the strongest readings from last fall, that remains a healthy reading on joblessness.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims are at historically solid levels even if they have come off their best levels. This week, claims dropped to 205K. That is slightly above the readings from the comparable weeks of the year of the past few years (excluding 2020 and 2021 when claims were much more elevated).

At this point of the year, claims falling is normal as shown in the second chart below. The current week of the year has only seen claims rise week over week 10.7% of the time. That is the sixth most consistent week of declines of the year. Claims will continue to face seasonal tailwinds in the weeks ahead, but that will begin to reverse as summer turns to fall.

Continuing claims also ticked higher in the latest week’s data, reaching 1.7 million. Although higher than 1.69 million the previous week, continuing claims have much more consistently been trending lower recently, and this week’s reading did in fact come in below forecasts of 1.705 million.

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