S&P 500 celebrated the tame CPI figure, and Fed minutes mentioning (the risks of, thanks to banking) recession in 2H 2023, took care of the rest. Bonds are risk-off, USD is not well-bid thanks to Fed pivot bets being dialed up, and real assets doing very well. The same goes for rising unemployment claims and slowing down PPI (inflation in the pipeline). The key question is when would the justifiably bearish interpretation overpower the remaining bullish sentiment (as if Fed pivot were happening in a vacuum)…

More intraday commentary on Twitter and Telegram follows as always – best combined with individual chart sections below.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but the analyses over email are the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram so as to benefit from sophisticated talk and extra intraday calls.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Junk bonds made up their mind yesterday, and will continue underperforming quality instruments (its upswing attempts would be sold into increasingly heavily over the weeks ahead). 4,129 is a key daily ES_F level for deciding the daily bias – muddling through with either a slightly bullish or slightly bearish daily tendency. As much as 4,160s are out of easy reach (given the terrible market breadth), and so is 4,015 followed by 4,078 (the latter level would flip the sentiment fairly, fairly fast, but we aren‘t there yet).

More By This Author:

CPI Fireworks Told You
CPI Fireworks Ahead
Why More SPX Upside