Flawed Wall Street analysis continues extrapolating low 'value' perceptions based on data-points, percentage declines from the highs, or old guidance. To a great degree those are irrelevant in the present circumstances.

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That's why I've repeatedly focused on deteriorated global growth expectations related to 'war', famine, COVID, China and not just the Fed, while at the same time recognizing this can change .. if certain disjointed 'black swans' retreat to their hibernation destinations, rather than swoop-in for further attacks.

There's one hint of something possibly resolving: Russia’s defense ministry said it’s now opening sea corridors for shipping from seven Ukrainian ports, amid growing international criticism of an unfolding global food crisis. Sure, it's not benevolence on Putin's part even if media suggests that.

Because he's fearful of losing what's left of his Fleet, much of which dates from Soviet era ships built in Ukraine, and for which there is scant infrastructure support. But, if this opens shipping sufficiently and right now, that eases one key aspect of the inflation challenge, and helps avoid famine in many poor countries, while it will help reduce wheat and grain prices throughout much of the world.

It might also be a sufficient gesture to bring reluctant Ukraine to the negotiating table, which nobody but Kissinger blames them for avoiding, given they're the victim (this would or could significantly alter preconceived inflation ideas too).

I've often noted that a handful of stocks account for the majority of mega-cap domination of the S&P (and NDX/QQQ), and maybe 80-90% of the volume. I saw quantification of this, with Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Nvidia and Alphabet (Google) alone just about 60% of the NDX yearly loss. I could add others but that makes the point. Tesla is almost a separate story.

If we expand the assessment, which is mostly in Technology, to 'Retail' and 'Housing', one senses not lust 'recession' (because there's more than 'tech'), but 'at-best' things in sort of limbo. But all of this simplified into our warning of the past year (and longer) that the 'Generals' (mega-caps and big-caps less in prominence but also qualified as illusory leaders) needed to retreat and then it would be a realistic view of the market.

Even now it's debatable, but recognize that 'if' the 'black swans' distance themselves a bit, things can improve rapidly.

However we're not at that point yet, and as we saw recognition of distribution, ongoing or more than a year, was slow in being recognized by big players that continued to champion overpriced stocks that had been overplayed for long.

These players are now busy lowering their estimates (often still unrealistic as well as too high, or simply unknown given the variables), ignoring the lower as well as concerning Money Supply draining, as liquidity continues to vanish.

It's not particularly satisfying, but so-called experts (even professors) only now do see the pointers such as the Money Supply, while some also correctly adjust that data to reflect the unusual increase that followed extraordinary Fed 'ease' during the pandemic. Hence the levels are not so depressed relative to levels we could call 'norms' that prevailed before the pandemic.

All of this leaves open the question about recession or not. I say 'stagflation' is the environment, and I've thought that for several months now. Recession has been a consideration 'already underway' for awhile, signaled by both Oil and I think mortgage rates. Missing would be a collapse in Productivity, but yes the odds of recession coming have to be real, since I think we're already in one.

I also suspect we can exit sooner rather than later 'if' the war ends, food gets to people in most of the world, which requires the Black Sea to be opened minus the Black Sea Fleet of Russia blocking it (they should withdraw unnecessary presence off Odesa), which thus would not require more ships being sunk.

In-sum: 

It's not just tricky, or even difficult, to ascribe proper valuation on the stock market (and barely on individual issues), given the ongoing variables. It is pretty much impossible, without know the duration of global contraction as well as the other factors that often directly influence that trend (war & food).

Hence the measure off the highs for the Averages/Indexes is meaningless, as in the aggregate there never was a justifiable earnings-based multiple or even reasonable valuation. You do hear folks trying to ascribe 'price' based on cash flow multiples, and that's a bit more realistic and does matter.

What we do know is that we had our internal decline (ongoing for over a year) under-cover of a strong S&P and NDX (largely bolstered by buybacks warned of being artificial enhancement for a long time, leading to huge insider selling).

It can continue, but risk levels diminish as there is now a 'negative unanimity' of sentiment, and it's spreading to consumers in general pretty quickly now.

If it's hard to see how that would be a future positive, consider that the FOMC, as bellicose as they've been with with hawkish talk, sees that too, and might be neutered with no more than one or two additional rate hikes.

Most pertinent for now: will Russia let Ukraine's ports open, and will they let a Ukrainian flotilla remove or neutralize the many mines laid to protect Odessa.

I suspect so, I believe Russia incapable of motivating it's own people at a time when (by now) the greatest threat to Putin is recognized as.. the Russians.