Capital is rotating - out of old-guard mega-caps and into new-guard tickers; at least that's been my contention of what 'should' happen this month; and so far appears evolving, if not entirely convincing. Additionally notice Bitcoin was pressured all along; lends credence to ideas of capital shifting (out of crypto a bit, and into a few new-era tickers; perhaps old-guards just for rebounds too).

I'm not so worried about all the chatter about what the Fed will or won't do, as I suspect the scenario we're focused on doesn't relate so much to interest rate sensitive stocks that are sensitive to 'retail' costs of borrowing money. Sure, it matters to society (perhaps helping Housing means more); but just suspect I'd view the ability of stocks to reverse Friday morning's sell-off more notable.

As to the House 'Landed Act' Bill, that's the proposed action to authorize the domestic intereception of suspicious drones overflying cities or intruding upon airport flight-paths and so on. Incredible there was little regulation before now.

Market X-ray: the point of Friday is that we did NOT get a 'black Friday' and I thought Thursday night there was a chance of a down-up bounce; though that is always difficult to call for on a Friday.

It is a particularly decent set-up for next week, 'possibly' to set-up a mixed (or weekend news reactive) start; then backtrack for intraweek trading entry; prior to a lift of some degree. While many viewed Friday as boring; I saw it as very constructive, because of what did not happen (negative) rather than what did.

Next week of course we get Nvidia results on Wednesday; for us that's more of a psychological impact on the mega-caps and especially if the market is disappointed, can work to the benefit of next-generation players.

Otherwise it's an S&P hovering around an indecision-pivot zone. I think we all know 'what we own' especially with respect to new-guard stocks. I suspect most are not merely swing-trading (alright if you're good at it and not inclined to emotional reactions; but not my focus just now as my eye already is focused on 2026); and believe for the moment we continue thrashing with a sort of 'repositioning' of assets, especially within the institutional portfolios.

I can't say that insider selling hasn't been notable (it has been); but historically we've seen that before, then underlying tickers advance anyway over time. At the same time we're pleased when we see primary holders of small stocks essentially display the same confidence they tend to share at 'Calls'.

(I am less thrilled when seeing a CEO champion his stock; then appear to have sold almost the same day; unless it's just routine 10b5 formulaic sales. I saw that mostly at time in the past couple years in tickers like SOUN, and yes I was soured slightly by that; to the point of selling the majority of positions. I've also seen that in a couple Quantum tickers; but they often needed the funds. I don't make too much of that; although it gets my attention.

Bottom-line: so I'm not sure the current 'tide' is finished going out, as they say, as we looked for in the mega-caps. However that's not to say the 'tide' doesn't move in 'waves', which means you can get rebounds even if low-tide is in the future for those stocks.

Conversely the tide already went out for preferred small-cap new-era stocks; which is not assurance there won't be more alternating waves to contend with; but much of that can be a function of late-year 'adjustments'. And several are already showing signs of stabilizing or preparing to advance anew (ONDS as well as the mercurial BBAI come to mind).

In any event enough for this fairly rough week to navigate ... now many await a well-watched NVDA Earnings Call next week; which obviously can roil market attitudes (even as Nvidia can make moves more favorable to entering into the Quantum field, as IBM did, and others too).

S&P multiples remain near 'historical ceilings'; and multiple expansion for next year is a tough call, given the economic slippage few want to really talk about. If we do get a shakeout of note in the S&P; that's not negative for new-guards but may be taken thusly briefly (hence the 'bordello' analogy of recent weeks) and then you see separation when certain new-era tickers rebound quicker. I have mixed feelings for next year; but suspect (if economic data allows) we'll get a friendly-enough Fed, and probably meaningful Team Trump initiatives.

So again; barring news; some chop to start the week; then perhaps a bit of lift. News of Trump reducing certain (foodstuff and coffee) tariffs is a plus. 

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 10
Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 3
Market Briefing For Monday, Oct. 27