Panicky peddling pummeling prices - persistently pressed people purging ... stocks earlier this week. I had hope the absurdity of excess selling especially in new-era tickers would be tempered; but it was not to be so, with the general selling pressure across almost all asset classes; while we didn't give up hope for an ending of the Government-led shutdown, with something still this week.

Well, my early comments Friday on 'X' were again sniffing-out how the market would snap-back quickly on a whiff of 'shutdown resolution' news; and noted it again in a special 'noon' hour update as things seem groping for a low. It was after that that we got the Democrats offering to reopen Government 'if' health care subsidies are extended for one year. And crypto/Bitcoin rebounded too, as one Fed member suggested an (un)stable coin embrace could lower rates.

Then the White House stuck with their initial position; and said the Democrats proposal is the same as a year ago; but hard to say if this is negotiating ploys. The American people want this resolved; and the economy needs to. Trump's response 'may' be a bargaining position; with an opening to a deal still alive. I don't know, but I will share my morning 'X' comments which express my view.

I don't concur with the crypto viewpoint; but the market liked it as well; plus it was my view that conventional ideas of a 'flush' (washout / selling climax) on Monday was a bit too cute, which is why I said all it would take is a move to open Government; and some short-covering would immediately be triggered.

At the same time enough has already been 'shaved-off' GDP for this Quarter, that it promulgates getting a further Fed rate cut next month, regardless. And while all this already should dampen holiday spending and so on; stocks may have better than lumps of coal to deal with for Christmas, if all this pans out.

Market X-ray: this market's so concentrated that it became almost impossible to avoid serious volatility (in either direction) even with a reasonably dispersed selection of stocks, as long as it's within areas that have been lively this year.

So we don't know more than my Thursday night extended comments; so refer to those if you'd like more of my thinking. Aside that it's a market that showed, by virtue of the S&P's response to a Democratic proposal (reiteration or not) a snappy rebound, before prices settled-back somewhat, but not entirely. That's a reminder that 'orthodox' technical washout or climatic prospects are minimal to non-existent, 'if' we awake to a settlement by Monday morning or intraday. I think all bears out there would have already harvested gains unless prepared to be skewered by a dramatic upward swing 'when' (not 'if') we get a deal.

By the way, the market Friday proved one point I've emphasized: potential is for good news over the weekend; and the focus is resolving the 'Shutdown' at the moment, 'not' so much the worry about AI-related job cuts. Actually AI is likely to make smart people work smarter and more effectively; even the less enlightened or educated will probably pump out better work because of AI in the future, and certainly healthcare will be better over the years; already I can attest to getting more thorough assessments of 'health data' from AI then will be provided by physicians at many times. They may know more but seem so rushed that they don't really share near enough; patiently using AI improves knowledge of interested patients. (I even found more information about sleep patterns given Tempurpedic's (bed) AI iPhone application as I still ponder how it figures it all out.

Anyway moderate politicians of both parties need to do their job to solve this. It is unclear still as to how they solve the Shutdown; but this needs to happen.

Friday down-up move began even before the Dems attempted to resolve the Shutdown with a former proposal; but regardless of White House downplaying resolution; seems like gears moving to finally resolve this economic distraction (although part of the market break was definitely 'crypto' plunge. As it ends we also would anticipate a number of Federal contracts potentially starting to flow from DoW/ FAA etc., as players look for; hence if so that 'could' seal the end of correction in a number of candidates for several potential key Federal awards.

With a December Fed rate-cut essentially 'slam-dunk' as some say (including me); we ought to get normality back to the yield-curve, and comments like we got from Altman and also Karp (Palantir) will help AI rebound; data-analytics too. 

Given the temperament pending the shutdown ending, and the fluid dynamics of this market, it is not that I won't give an opinion of what happens next... actually I just did.. it is fluid and it's the 'tide falling' taking all down to varying degrees.. simply a 'Bordello Raid' (to be less kind) as I've discussed during the last couple weeks, and noted the deteriorating breadth and so on even earlier.

A number of smaller tickers should soon exhaust downside because they become stupid cheap; while some of the big-caps in-theory could have more to go; then rebound. One whiff of shutdown-settlement, and all turns up regardless where the Moving Averages are at that point.

Bottom-line: What we got Friday was either the low, or a preliminary to the low, in my humble opinion. It's not because the stock market can't work lower on AI bubble-burst, crypto or other concerns (could happen); but from a standpoint of immediacy related to the Federal Shutdown, the Nation is simply not going to put up with much more of this; and both parties know that. If they don't they're brain-dead or something (maybe I give them too much credit haha).

Anyway enough stress and thought for this old guy to have put in this week. I wish you a good weekend, as we'll see what Washington brings us Monday. I could spend time talking about nuances, chart levels and so on; but it's really all extraneous for now; since all that matters for the moment is the 'shutdown' resolving, and then we bounce, regardless of what the future has in-store.

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 3
Market Briefing For Monday, Oct. 27
Market Briefing For Tuesday, Oct. 21