Jobs drop isn't really a flop - except for the Labor Dept. statistician, who got fired personally by Trump (very Trumpian move). Sure it gives POTUS a bit more room to talk about firing the Fed Chairman next; and suggests now any Fed interest rate cut is reactive, rather than (could have been) proactive.

Of course they won't note that the economy IS holding up well considering; at the outside inventory builds ahead of tariffs kicking in; but Federal workers were largely at the core of the Job losses; and that was part of MAGA goals.

So now it’s visible ‘why’ forthcoming Fed rate cuts will appear reactive rather than proactive next month. (A bit too late.) Both mandates of the Fed require moves to maintain jobs and deter inflation.

Tariffs and inflation combined with revised lower Jobs to finally point to macro S&P Index corrections joining the internal declines ongoing for weeks. And flip this to see small caps complete retreats and firm on increased monetary ease prospects. As a process. We saw some of that after Friday's initial washouts.

As I tweeted early, traders may be wise not to panic after the fact into a 'finally visible summer swoon' in advertised S&P / NDX index declines. I’d suggested overdue stretched S&P vulnerability to catch-down for awhile; not surprising.

As it was Friday any washout or ensuing turn would of course be suspect; but in small-caps resilience was pretty good on a spotty basis. Certainly Rate Cut probability rises. Plus as to tariffs, it’s back to harsh treatment of Canada - and Switzerland - both of which have pride but possible moderate their stance.

Market X-ray:  The week ended with some reversals and more presumed next week. While I warned of big-cap exhaustion and complacency, it's also seasonally rocky. Trading likely sees stops run and sets-up some bounce 1-2 hours into action on Monday; almost like it did on Friday.

So Friday's heavy S&P might see residual caution bleeding into early Monday barring sudden favorable weekend twists to all this. Several 'new-era' tickers have ER’s next week and the following, so any drops there could be last good entry spots if forward guidance proves solid. That was also true early Friday.

One member asked me why we bother at this age with single digit stocks. Ah perhaps for amusement and as 'new-era leading technologies' has always for me been a passion (and often the early stocks do NOT work out so know that if you're new here). 

So yes, often I'd trade volatile gambling stocks in a retirement account; and if you did you're not worried about short-term vs. long-term gains. For any of us however, who put the tickers in a personal trading account; we have to awake to tax considerations, if we have any 'size' in them; hence I talk about pushing to long-term or a new tax year; neither of which is here as yet. Might not wait, and might wait, for 2026; or partially so. Such decisions have not been made.

Bottom line: the current logic seems to be 'get fired if you tell the truth'; but it's not that simple and could have been candidly discussed on Jobs release.

Oh well. It's data-gathering and statistics; but gosh ... sensitivities. So I think it is a mistake to fire the economist at the BLS regardless of politics; now next time (if there's a Trump appointee in the job); everyone will question accuracy. As to 'revisions' they are gathered on a rolling basis and are simply realistic.

The overall market was not and is not as strong as a cursory S&P glance still shows ... which probably means the slower economy contributes to whipsaws; and we may have that continue, at least for the next few weeks (or months!). At the same time selected individual stocks will do their own thing; especially where it's responsive (in either direction) to contract awards of disappointment as the case may be. Don't blame the messenger; that's the message of what is an extended macro market, while not so for many under-radar stocks.

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