Market Briefing For Monday, July 21

A 'neutral Expiration' followed a decent week, that to a degree was initially dominated by rising tariff/trade uncertainty ... but it didn't entirely offset overall improving domestic macro status; and certainly not small-cap situations, nor the prospect that many just meandered toward the nearest 'heavy' Options 'open interest', and finished there on Friday.

Now we have an Israeli / Syrian ceasefire between the very brief firefight after the new (former terrorist) military in Damascus decided to attack the Bedouin Druze tribes that are absolutely accepted as part of Israeli society. That was unacceptable; Israel attacked Syria's military HQ; they got the message; the fight seems over, and thus there's a drop in geopolitical uncertainty

There's really not much to say about individual stocks we follow this weekend; more important is how they digest whatever shuffles 'Expiration related' as we get into the new week; and ideally advance to test-out recent highs days ago.

Quantum Computing tickers are a little trickier given their prior moves; curious Earning Report prospects now; but optimism for guidance ahead. So while we would like to see D-Wave (QBTS) forge into the low 20's; there's been relatively little in the way of information that would encourage optimism for 'this' Quarter; but they have a pattern of surprises. So does RGTI, which is doing fine; and even QUBT got a 'bank' contract of some type. We still favor QBTS but unsure how much more it can gain in the very short term, while not concerned eventually.

Market X-ray: High levels can precede meaningful shakeouts; but haven't yet; and we're not surprised. The tax and growth backdrop is satisfactory and for that matter has companies scrambling to build and spend while they are now able to 'expense' equipment in the same year it's put into service.

That's similar to how the '70's recovered; with the addition of prepaid interest on construction loans and so forth, which isn't instituted; but moves that are are sufficient. Since Trump is a veteran of the same 'accelerated depreciation' era I participated in that long ago; the memory probably contributed to putting that provision in the 'bill', with a (correct) belief that's it's a positive for growth.

Bottom line: expiration was sloppy to neutral; and that's perfectly normal in a pricey market as far as the Indexes and big-caps; seasonal doldrums; and of course decent macro news like Consumer Sentiment (but that doesn't cheer the Fed toward a rate cut; though they might do that anyway to ease tension).

I'm thinking a brief dip for trader positioning followed by an intraweek rally yet again, 'if' the news background and trade soirees dance to a favorable tune.

In essence, a dip to get people nervous; then a post-Expiration rebound; most especially in targeted stocks that had high Open Interest unwound Friday.


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