Fund-Flows For Fiscal-2025 Q1, And For The Month Of December
The month of December, 2024 compared to December, 2023:
| Type of Flow |
2024 |
2023 |
| Net-transfer (daily average) | +$62B |
+$63B |
| Nominal-spending (daily average) | $584B | $541B |
| Change in bank credit | +48B |
+$109B |
The net money-creation was lower this December than December 2023 (+$117B compared to +$178B). This was due to last December's bank credit increase (chart below).
The fiscal-2025 Q1, compared to the fiscal-2024 Q1:
| Type of Flow |
Fiscal-2025 |
Fiscal-2024 |
| Net-transfer (annualized) | +$620B (+$2,481B) |
+$394B (+1,576B) |
| Nominal-spending (annualized) | $1,891B ($7,564B) | $1,676B ($6,704B) |
| Change in bank credit | +$214B | +$231B |
Compared to fiscal-2024 Q1:
- The Treasury net-transfer is $226B higher than in fiscal-2024. (Nominal-spending is $215B higher.)
- The change in bank credit is $17B lower than last year.
- The Fed's IOR (interest on reserves) has paid $16.6B so far, which is $10B lower than last year (it was $26.4B last year).
- Total net money-creation is +$199B more than last year which continues to explain the SPX rally, but which has been decreasing during the month of December.
The average net-transfer (from the Treasury to the private sector) is decreasing according to the seasonal pattern (pink arrows inside the blue boxes). This tendency (lower net-transfer) should last until the mid-January tax-take. The SPX is likely to be in a trading-range until then.
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