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Confused by wild price swings? Here’s a repeatable, 3-step playbook to make faster, calmer buy, hold, and sell decisions—without guessing.

By the end, you’ll be able to separate noise from news, stress-test a shaky position, recognize when a “bad” quarter is actually better than feared, and act with conviction—whether that means trimming, adding, or doing nothing. We show the process on real names (Nike NKE, Couche-Tard (ANCTF), Granite REIT), and point you to a free replay with slides and cheat sheets so you can apply it to your portfolio today.
 

Why does price feel so confusing

• After hundreds of webinar Q&As, the most common question is still: “Stock ABC just spiked/dropped—buy, sell, or hold?”

• Short-term price is driven by a mix of results and expectations. Good quarters can “disappoint” and fall; weak quarters can rally if expectations were worse.

Step 1 — Know what you own (and why)

• Write a clear, one-page thesis for every holding:

  • Playbook: How the business makes money.

  • Growth vectors: Why sales and profits can keep rising.

  • Economic moat: What protects it from rivals.

• Also write the risk map: internal weaknesses, external/industry threats (e.g., tariffs), and competitive landscape.

• Mike illustrates the exercise in real time with Nike (NKE)—brand strength vs. retailer relationships, DTC shift, cyclical demand, tariff risk, and global competition.

Step 2 — Read quarterly earnings the smart way (20% of effort = 80% of insight)

• Start with the press release (highlights, revenue/EPS, dividend actions).

• Scan the investor presentation for segment charts and guidance.

• If needed, dig into financial statements (margins, cash flow, debt, maturities).

• Skim the earnings call (or transcript) for tone, guidance changes, and analyst pushback.

• Pro tip: If you’re stuck, paste the call transcript into an AI summarizer with a specific question.

What to look for inside the results

• Revenue quality: Organic vs. acquisitions; same-store sales for retailers; FX impact.

• EPS quality: Adjusted vs. GAAP; what’s truly recurring; why margins changed.

• Margins: Stable, expanding, or compressing—and is it temporary or structural?

• Guidance: Reaffirmed, raised, or cut (and why).

• Capital allocation: Dividend hikes/cuts, buybacks, debt moves, asset sales.

Expectations vs. numbers (why “bad news” can rally)

• Example: Alimentation Couche-Tard posted lower revenue/EPS, yet rose on the day because same-store trends and outlook beat fears.

• Translate: Price reacts to the delta vs. consensus, not headlines alone.

Step 3 — Use the Dividend Triangle to anchor conviction

• Rising revenue, rising EPS, and a rising dividend over time = a healthy, compounding engine.

• The triangle filters noise and highlights when to investigate further (e.g., revenue up but EPS down = margin questions).

When price still makes no sense

• Re-check your thesis and risk map (you might be missing a key driver).

• Consider market appetite (sector out of favor) or single-tenant/industry exposures (e.g., Granite REIT and Magna concentration).

• If after a full review you still don’t get it, the position may not fit your circle of competence.

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