S&P 500 gave up NVDA earnings gains Thursday on AI bubble fears, recouping some of the slide Friday. The story is best told on the SPX hourly chart below, where I marked key levels for you. Rate cutting odds increased vs. a week ago, but I chalk it up to a bit inconsistent job market data (headline NFPs vs. unemployment rate), driving up uncertainty.

In looking for the next directional ES move, check out the sectoral view and Nasdaq performance alongside bonds and volatility metrics…. Forget not the big picture of the weekly chart, and my earlier (premium) H&S remarks. Bitcoin vs. gold are also sending a message of their own…

I‘m opening a little stock market preview of what Trading Signals / Stock Signals clients are getting. After three paragraphs of thorough premium analysis, I end up with :

„Big picture and H&S – thus far the pattern is in play, and beyond the technical target of breaking the neckline (equal H&S height, projected to the downside) that‘s at ES 6,320s (inauguration highs that I called for you early 2025 as it was premature to get and stay short in Jan), we have 6,490 area as a weaker support.“

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