S&P 500 rebounded Friday as called, right off the opening bell as expected. Breadth improved – have the bulls any reason to rejoice? Energy, tech and some real estate advancing, can that be enough? What about that weakness into the closing bell and VIX retreat? I talked bonds and dollar for directional clues in equities – they‘re a bit at odds as riskier bonds aren't rallying, but neither is the dollar even if rate cut odds went to less than a coin toss for December FOMC (significantly down from being baked in the cake only a month ago).

Sure, Waller wanted to cut in Jul, and the Fed is behind the curve in rate cutting as inflation isn't really raging following tariffs – and given the macroeconomic signs and the shape of the consumer or the job market, the Fed wouldn't be ill advised to support the economy, jobs and real estate… while looking the other way as regards inflation that didn't turn into a problem yet. The Fed isn't yet capitulating to a dire necessity to cut.

Next, I’ll offer you one third of the analytics and market calls that Trading Signals / Stock Signals clients get, featuring more breadth and volatility charts (and real assets with Bitcoin – precious metals did slide as called). Sellers clearly won the day in bonds, and that‘s an extra confirmation of S&P 500 and Nasdaq sellers returning after the expected bounce played out. Breadth and sectoral views weren't even risk-on, and S&P 500 got too far too fast.

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