A New Uptrend Has Started

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SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX 4/12/24 at 5123.41.

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.


SPY has been up 7 days up in a row; all were higher within 5 days. The second window up from the bottom is the VIX which was up today which suggests the SPY may see a mild consolidation short term. Page two shows that the weekly SPX/VIX ratio hit a new high before SPX. SPX/VIX ratio leads the SPX and suggests new highs are coming for the SPX. The April consolidation is over and a new uptrend has started.


The second window up from the bottom is the weekly SPX/VIX ratio and next higher window is the weekly SPX. We shaded in light green the times when the weekly SPX has not reached a new short term high and the SPX/VIX ratio makes a higher high. This divergence has lead to higher highs in the SPX. Last week we looked at the monthly SPX compared to the monthly SPX/VIX ratio and so far the monthly SPX/VIX ratio has not hit a new high, but the month is not over. The weekly SPX/VIX ratio hitting a new short term high suggests new highs are coming for the SPX.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The bottom window is the daily 50-day average of the up down volume percent for GDX. This is a momentum chart and is designed to catch the trend for GDX. Up trends in GDX are in force when the 50-day average of the up down volume for GDX is above “0”.We noted with a red box the current time frame. Though GDX has moved sideways over the last month (see top window) the 50-day average of the up down volume has moved higher showing this indicator is getting stronger and at some point will translate into a rally in GDX. The pattern that appears to be forming on GDX is a large Head and Shoulders pattern where the Head is the August 2023 low. This Head and Shoulders pattern has a measured target near 50.00. Rally in GDX has further to go in the short term as well as the intermediate term.


More By This Author:

Positive Divergence Going Forward
New Highs Are Likely
Bigger Trend Is Still Up For The Market

Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. ...

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