A deep look into the fundamentals shows that gain to be entirely realisable given the growing worldwide demand for energy generally and specifically gas in both normal and liquified form - LNG. That is helped by the incredibly low price of US gas compared to oil. Gas prices at  $4 MMBtu is the equivalent of $24 for oil, according to the CEO of large US gas producer EQT Corp (EQT). Today oil is relatively low in historic terms at around $65 while gas sits at around $3.30 as I wrote.  Gas prices in Europe and Asia are much higher at around $11 per unit giving US suppliers a huge advantage with more and more to be shipped around the world in LNG form to meet that demand in coming years... 
 

LNG carrier. Source: Depositphotos
 

I first invested in LNG when I bought into Cheniere Energy - stock market symbol also (LNG) - in 2010 at $3.42 per share. At that time the company had been building a terminal in the US to import LNG. Then came the US shale gas revolution in around 2008 which rendered that plan worthless and the company's value with it.  Many company execs would give up but Cheniere's turned their plans upside down and instead invested hugely in US LNG export terminals. Not long after the share price surged upwards and Cheniere Energy started exporting liquefied natural gas in February 2016 from its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana, marking the first export of LNG from the continental United States. That event was a significant milestone for the company and the US natural gas market. In 2024  the US was the world's largest LNG exporter and Cheniere had become the largest US exporter. 

Its share price as I write is $234.98 giving me a gain of 6,770%!  Pity I kept taking profits along the way - had I not I would soon rival Elon Musk in wealth! 

On a market cap basis Cheniere's value is 51.7% higher than Venture Global's (VG) and since VG will become an even larger LNG exporter than Cheniere that gain shows that my prediction of a 50% gain for VG is achievable helped also by President Trump who ordered the end of a Biden-era moratorium on licensing for LNG terminals. 

More on the company and the possibilities follows...
 

Venture Global 

I shall use its symbol VG for the rest of this article. It describes itself as "a long-term, low-cost provider of U.S. LNG sourced from resource rich North American natural gas basins. VG's business includes assets across the LNG supply chain including LNG production, natural gas transport, shipping and regasification. VG’s first facility, Calcasieu Pass, commenced producing LNG in January 2022. The company’s second facility, Plaquemines LNG, achieved first production of LNG in December 2024. The company is currently constructing and developing over 100 MTPA of nameplate production capacity to provide clean, affordable energy to the world. Venture Global is developing Carbon Capture and Sequestration projects at each of its LNG facilities."  

It became a listed company in January, 2025, at $25 per share. The price as I write is $14.19 per share. Returning to its listing price would mean a gain of 76%!  The main reason for the decline appears to be legal claims against it by Shell and others for allegedly breaching supply agreements. Shell's claim was recently dismissed and since the others were similar one could expect a similar outcome. 

I do not like investing in companies that have potential legal problems but took the risk and bought in at $11.77 because I liked what the company has done and will do in the future.  And it is doing that incredibly fast compared with most other US LNG exporters including Cheniere. This shows in the very rapid growth in sales from zero and a loss in 2021 to $4,972 million in 2024 and net income before taxes of $2,183 million. In percentage terms that net income is 44% and much higher than Cheniere's 33% further justifying my price views. 

Full information on the company including financials and its plans can be found on Venture Global's website.

That past rapid progress is being repeated helped partly by its innovative approach to building new LNG export terminals. In early June they announced the official start of site work at its third liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, CP2 , marking a major milestone for the company and the US energy sector.

CP2 is VG's third facility to be built in the last five years, underscoring the company’s rapid expansion and commitment to meeting global energy demands. It also has most pipelines in place to bring the gas from supply sources. Such pipelines can take a decade to build due to the madhouse of regulations that try to stop anything proceeding at a sensible pace. 

Upon completion of CP2, VG expects to become the largest LNG exporter in the United States and the second largest in the world supplying LNG to big buyers in Europe, Japan and elsewhere.

The project is expected to bring new LNG supply to global markets beginning in 2027, with advanced engineering and off-site module construction already underway, positioning CP2 as one of the most advanced LNG export projects in the US. Those modules are built by very experienced Baker Hughes (BKR). 

The speed is incredible - that will be their third facility built in the past five years. 

The speed of positive announcements from the company is incredible too!

From VG's website...

-  Feb 17, 2025.  Venture Global announced that it has notified its long-term customers that its Calcasieu Pass facility will commence commercial operations on April 15, 2025. The facility will achieve its commercial operation date, or COD, in under 68 months from its August 2019 final investment decision, despite substantial impacts including two hurricanes, the COVID-19 pandemic, and major unforeseen manufacturing issues, such as with the Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) forming part of the facility’s power island.

- March 16. 2025. Venture Global (NYSE: VG) announced plans for a brownfield expansion at its Plaquemines LNG facility south of New Orleans, Louisiana. Joining Venture Global for the announcement was Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and other important people.  The planned Plaquemines expansion will consist of 24 trains and would represent an approximately $18 billion additional investment bringing Venture Global’s total investment in current and planned US projects to over $75 billion.  “Our planned expansion of Plaquemines will make it the largest LNG export facility built in North America” said Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel. 

- March 19, 2025. Venture Global received approval from the U.S. Department of Energy to export liquefied natural gas to non-FTA countries from  CP2 LNG.  To date, the initial phase of CP2 LNG has been sold through 20-year sales and purchase agreements with ExxonMobil, Chevron, JERA, New Fortress Energy, INPEX, China Gas, SEFE and EnBW. Venture Global is in active discussions for the remaining capacity and has launched significant off site construction of the project while it waited project authorizations from U.S. regulators.

- April 15, 2025. Venture Global announced the commencement of shipment of low-cost, U.S. LNG to the project’s long-term customers from its inaugural LNG export project – Calcasieu Pass.

- April 21, 2025. Venture Global announced today that its subsidiary, Venture Global Plaquemines LNG, LLC  has closed an offering of $2,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes, which has been issued in two series: (i) a series of 7.50% senior secured notes due 2033 in an aggregate principal amount of $1,250,000,000 (the “2033 Notes”) and (ii) a series of 7.75% senior secured notes due 2035 in an aggregate principal amount of $1,250,000,000 (the “2035 Notes” and, together with the 2033 Notes, the “Notes”). The 2033 Notes will mature on May 1, 2033 and the 2035 Notes will mature on May 1, 2035.

- May 1, 2025. Venture Global announced today that its subsidiary, Venture Global CP2 LNG, LLC (“CP2”), has secured commitments from 19 banks for a $3.0 billion bank loan facility (the “CP2 Bank Loan” or the “Facility”) to continue manufacturing, procurement and engineering of its natural gas liquefaction and export facility, begun in early 2023, to be located alongside the Calcasieu Ship Channel in Cameron Parish, Louisiana (the “Project”). The company previously announced it had launched the formal FID process for CP2 in March. “Venture Global is proud to close this major financing for CP2, which is slated to receive its first two liquefaction trains — number 55 and 56 deployed by Venture Global — in the coming months. This new capital, on top of the more than $4 billion we have already invested to date, will enable continued fabrication, manufacturing and procurement at an accelerated pace, similar to Plaquemines. This strategically important project for the United States will quickly bring new American LNG supply to the global market, equalizing the balance of trade with other nations and supporting global energy security,” said Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel.

- June 3, 2025. Venture Global announced today that it has initiated full mobilization and started site work at the company’s third LNG export facility, CP2 LNG. The launch of the site work comes shortly after CP2 received final approval and Notices to Proceed from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on the Project, and weeks after receiving its non-FTA export authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy.

- July 3, 2025. Venture Global announced the execution of a new 20-year Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with PETRONAS LNG Ltd. (PLL), a subsidiary of the Malaysian state-owned oil and gas company, PETRONAS. Under the terms of the SPA, PETRONAS will purchase 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global’s third facility, CP2 LNG, for 20 years. This builds upon Venture Global’s existing agreement with PETRONAS for 1 MTPA of LNG supply from Plaquemines LNG.

- July 3, 2025. Venture Global, Inc. announced today that its subsidiary, Venture Global Plaquemines LNG, LLC  has closed an offering of $4,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes, which has been issued in two series: (i) a series of 6.50% senior secured notes due 2034 in an aggregate principal amount of $2,000,000,000 (the “2034 Notes”) and (ii) a series of 6.75% senior secured notes due 2036 in an aggregate principal amount of $2,000,000,000 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2034 Notes, the “Notes”). The 2034 Notes will mature on January 15, 2034 and the 2036 Notes will mature on January 15, 2036. Venture Global had previously announced the issuance of $2,500,000,000 of senior secured notes by VGPL on April 21, 2025 (the “Existing Notes”), bringing the combined aggregate amount of senior secured notes issued by VGPL to $6,500,000,000 since the project began producing LNG in December 2024.

- July 9, 2025. Venture Global and Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE) announced the finalization of an agreement under which SEFE’s subsidiary, SEFE Energy GmbH, will purchase an additional 0.75 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from CP2 LNG, Venture Global’s third project, for 20 years. Today’s announcement amends the existing Sales and Purchase Agreement signed by the companies in 2023, increasing the total volume of LNG purchased by SEFE from CP2 LNG to 3.0 MTPA. Venture Global is expected to become Germany’s largest LNG supplier, with a combined 5 MTPA of 20-year offtake agreements signed with SEFE and EnBW.

- July 16, 2025. Venture Global and Eni S.P.A. of Italy announced the execution of a new Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the purchase of 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from CP2 LNG, Venture Global’s third project, for 20 years. This deal marks Eni’s first ever long-term agreement with a U.S. LNG producer-

- July 28, 2025.  Venture Global announced a final investment decision (FID) and successful closing of the $15.1 billion project financing for the first phase of the company’s third project, Venture Global CP2 LNG (CP2), together with the associated CP Express Pipeline. This milestone represents the largest standalone project financing ever, and the second largest project financing after the combined financings of Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG. The transaction garnered enormous interest from the world’s leading banks, resulting in over $34 billion of commitments, and required no outside equity investment.

- August 4, 2025. Venture Global received approval from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for an uprate amendment to its Calcasieu Pass LNG project. The uprate approval increases Calcasieu Pass’ permitted peak liquefaction capacity from 12.0 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 12.4 MTPA.

- August 12, 2025.  A tribunal judged in favour of Venture Global in the case brought against it by Shell.  Similar outcomes are expected in similar cases brought against VG by other companies. 

That flurry of positive announcements is enough to convince me that VG has management that is talented and dynamic. They also believe in themselves - the two co-founders and co-bosses have been big buyers of VG's shares this year. 

They must also have no doubt about the future ...
 

Demand for LNG  

The EU's demand alone is likely to be more than the US produces at present. As part of the trade deal with the U.S the E.U. agreed to purchase $750B worth of American energy through 2028 or $250B annually with the EU's primary focus being on LNG. According to Argus Media that target is impossible to meet  because it outstrips current US production and export capacity.  

China's demand will stay high. China is the largest importer and despite its agreement to build a second pipeline together with Russia to bring in Russian gas that 2,600 km long pipeline will take years to build even at China's rapid way of getting things done plus prices have not yet been agreed and China will not want to be dependent on one source. They also like low prices.  

India will buy more to replace coal use. 

Japan's demand will increase. Japan is the second largest importer and according to Reuters it is back in the spotlight for liquefied natural gas producers as the boom in artificial intelligence, rising costs for cleaner energy and a new national energy plan drive appetite for long-term LNG deals.

The UK's own sources are depleting. About 180 of the existing 284 active fields will close by 2030, meaning own gas supplies will fall 80pc and the UK will be reliant on imports. According to upliftuk.org its reliance on imported gas is set to rise from 55% today to 68% dependent by 2030, 85% by 2040 and 94% by 2050   Much of that will be imported from the US to preserve the so-called special relationship .   Other sources show even greater dependency already - the North Sea Transition Authority has declared that production of UK gas has declined by 10% in the last year and 61% of the UK’s gas supply in 2024 was imported. 

Apart from population growth demand there will be more switching from filthy coal to gas for electrical power generation and the IEA projects that electricity demand from the massive build-out of data centres for AI worldwide is set to more than double by 2030. Quantum computing will add vast demand amounts to that. 

Shell has these projections...
 

Shell LNG Outlook 2024-2040
 

VG and the environment

I invest in companies that are doing their best not to make our polluted planet worse. Natural gas is much cleaner that coal and oil and VG prides itself in having one of the cleanest LNG export facilities in the world. It is developing Carbon Capture and Sequestration projects at each of its LNG facilities.
 

Risks?

A glut of LNG has long been forecasted. It will come but I see no sign of that until some time in the 2030s. Buyers would not be entering 20 years contracts if they thought such a glut was around the corner. Competitor countries such as Australia have local opposition to expanding existing or building new plants. Canada has had long time and huge cost overruns getting its first LNG export facility completed and it will take years to build more. That Shell Outlook above shows the opposite of a glut. 

Other risks such as a market crash would affect most investments and Russia's Putin starting a bigger war in Europe could cause that as could a crypto crash.

I do not see the long predicted recession in the US as happening and the EU is probably at the bottom of the hole it dug itself into. 

That brings me to a final point...
 

VG's price point in the next 12 months

Financial Times share price forecast in USD. The 14 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Venture Global Inc have a median target of $17.00, with a high estimate of $21.00 and a low estimate of $12.00. The median estimate represents a 19.80% increase from the last price of $14.19. 

Yahoo Finance  analyst Price Targets

12.00  Low

16.80 Average

21.00 High

I do not know what logic the low ballers use but mine is more logical than those who predict lower than $21.  That logic and $21 price supports my prediction that a 50% gain for VG is achievable. 

If readers share their views in a comment conversation below we all learn more from those. 

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