E Market Briefing For Wednesday, July 29

Disruptive concerns - threaten to push merely shuffling concerns from the fore, and to the back-burners. How so? Well for the moment it depends on Washington. Widely presumed views that we will get 'a' Bill prevail; but whether its 'the' Bill the nation has need for, is another story.

Yes the nation would scrape by if the sidelined workers get $200 or 400 a week extra beyond regular unemployment insurance, and yes it crossed my mind that $30,000, yearly (rate) while furloughed is more than subsistence to get by. However, that's the extra funding which might just be why 'consumer spending' didn't fall off a cliff like so many suspected. And 'if' we do not salvage the situation almost immediately, not say after the August 'recess' (which should be cancelled), a short-term spending plunge is probably on-tap.

This time the market's response might be different than last time, and aside the Fed meeting comments (which hold back the market), for now the bill is more pertinent.

Executive summary:

  •   With no therapeutic drug available (serious help and easy to prescribe) 'yet', the only other approach to a solid spending bill might be faster economic reopening.
  • I'll make it clear (as if I needed to) that this situation is serious, even if masks do reduce new case level rates, because mortality 'lags', that we must not become accustomed to higher 'morbidity & mortality' levels as somehow 'routine'.
  • Also there's not a shred of evidence suggesting this was (as media extremists suggest) a 'plandemic' not 'pandemic', that's pure ignorance of a global scourge, or it's simply normal people who can't comprehend the dire situation's deviation from the 'norm', so (like other issues) imagine it must be some conspiracy.
  • Dr. Casadevall from Johns Hopkins just said it will take 'multiple' vaccines and antibody treatments to control this virus because of its complexity.
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Paul McGee 2 months ago Member's comment

Agreed, everyone was so afraid of hurting the economy so kept their borders open. So foolish. No every country's economy is getting pummeled.

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Gene Inger 2 months ago Author's comment

It's like the Spanish Flu of 1918-19... suffering and a recession; but it led to the Roaring 20's and that might happen this time too; despite all the belief that monetary policies will inhibit that. I'm compassionate and lost a cousin to this horror last week; but life goes on and might as well be trading markets independent of impulsive or emotional reactions to events; which is often the wrong moves to make. We've nailed this as you know from reading my excerpts here; and I hope you understand that I was in tears hearing back in February from people who said our warnings helped them get PPE and protect families at a time Washington wasn't advising it. And since turning bullish on March 23rd it's been great. Checkout $AMD, $LPTH and $SRNE all of which we owned and own.

Gene Inger 2 months ago Author's comment

Indeed... my Sorrento (SRNE) suggestion at 4 is working out great; and their on site testing and a possible 'pill' is really the needed solution. I'll welcome you as a subscriber if you like; as I'm going to have to curtail allowing other websites from quoting more than a paragraph or two of my work (no compensation); heck I enjoy sharing but gotta pay the 'lectric bill (JK).. cheers!