Following a brief splurge in January fueled by motor vehicles, consumers went back into a freeze in February and March.

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This morning the Census Department released Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for March.

• Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 billion, down 1.0 percent from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent above March 2022. 
• Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up 5.4 percent  from the same period a year ago. 
• The January 2023 to February 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.4 percent to down 0.2 percent .
• Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent from February 2023, but up 1.5 percent  above last year. 
• Nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 13.0 percent from March 2022.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales 

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Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Real vs Nominal 

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If you think consumer spending has been strong, you're not paying attention. 

The Econoday consensus was for a decline of 0.4 percent. Sales fell 1.0 percent and real sales fell 1.1 percent.

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