Continued Unemployment Claims Notes

• After bottoming on 2022-09-17, the 4-week moving average of continued unemployment claims has increased every week for 28 weeks.
• In those 28 week, claims have risen from 1.296 million to 1.814 million.

Continued Claims Monthly Averages 

Using monthly averages allows for easier use of recession bars on charts. 

On a monthly basis, continued claims have risen every month for six months. Based on recent data, the monthly average of continued claims is poised for another rise in April. 

Year-over-year continued claims rose in March for the first time in 25 months.

Recession Lead Times 

In a few weeks the numbers on the right side of the above chart will move from 6 to 7. Of course, that presumes we are not in recession already. 

70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

Please note that 70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

For those living paycheck to paycheck, any rise in the unemployment rate is a major, major, event. 

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