Plain Vanilla 12-Month Ahead Recession Predictions
Image Source: Pixabay
Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:
Figure 1: Estimated recession probability using 1986 onward sample (blue), using pre-pandemic sample (tan), assuming no recession as of May 2025. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, author’s calculations.
More By This Author:
Alternative Estimates Of OutputA Closer Look At Employment
Employment And Business Cycle Indicators
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.
Comments
Leave a comment to automatically be entered into
our contest to win a free Echo Show.
