Image Source: Pexels

If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…

Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.

I’m not sure about the exact ensemble of models used, but apparently they use “multivariate probit models with sentiment-based, macroeconomic, and financial indicators to provide a more robust signal of potential recessions.”

Both series are below thresholds.

I found even more interesting their heat map:

Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.

There is a strong divergence between New orders, the 10yr-3mo spread, and — to a lesser extent longer term unemployed — versus all else. Note that their heat map does not include unemployment, or a series that looks like the Sahm rule (which Sahm intended as a coincident — not leading — indicator).

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