Technical Market Report For April 12, 2025
The good news is:
- Seasonality for the shortened week prior to Good Friday has been strong.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NH; The nearly 10% rally for the index last Wednesday was unable to generate an increase in the number of new highs from their already minimal levels.
The next chart is similar to the 1st one except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NH ditto.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
NY HL ratio remained in extremely negative territory in spite of the huge price rally.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL ratio, in red, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC HL Ratio ditto.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
OTC NL There were 835 new lows on big rally on Wednesday, the day of the big rally and 1434 new lows the next day. There were 204 new lows Friday, much lower, but still an uncomfortably high number.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NL There were 752 new lows on Wednesday (a crash worthy number) and 230 on Friday (a threatening number).
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 5% trend (39 day EMA) of NYSE downside volume (NY DV) in purple. NY DV has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing levels of downside volume move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY DV has been at extreme levels and declined modestly during the big rally.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC DV, in orange, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC DV hardly interrupted its downward move during the rally.
I think the market is being manipulated. Probably by the market makers who have been facing huge losses from PUT positions they have been selling. The massive rally likely bankrupted a lot of short sellers and gave the market makers an opportunity to buy back the PUTS they have been selling and sell a bunch of calls while they at it.
Normally options expire on the 3rd Friday of the month. This month the 3rd Friday is Good Friday and the market is closed. The week prior to Good Friday is, on average, pretty strong so they only have to keep the scam going for 4 more days.
The Positives
The positives remain elusive.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 4 trading days prior to Good Friday of during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for next week has been positive by all measures.
Report for the 4 trading days before Good Friday.
The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1965-1 1.01% 1 0.20% 2 0.36% 3 0.66% 4 2.23%
1969-1 0.34% 5 0.74% 2 0.26% 3 -0.18% 4 1.16%
1973-1 -0.58% 1 -0.79% 2 0.06% 3 0.39% 4 -0.93%
1977-1 -0.68% 1 -0.26% 2 0.25% 3 0.15% 4 -0.54%
1981-1 -0.38% 1 -0.44% 2 0.75% 3 0.77% 4 0.70%
Avg -0.06% -0.11% 0.33% 0.36% 0.52%
1985-1 0.40% 1 -0.39% 2 -0.49% 3 -0.15% 4 -0.63%
1989-1 -0.92% 1 0.82% 2 -0.30% 3 0.09% 4 -0.30%
1993-1 0.13% 1 -0.98% 2 0.71% 3 -0.38% 4 -0.52%
1997-1 -0.92% 1 0.44% 2 1.68% 3 -1.54% 4 -0.34%
2001-1 1.47% 1 6.09% 2 2.54% 3 3.29% 4 13.38%
Avg 0.03% 1.20% 0.83% 0.26% 2.32%
2005-1 -0.01% 1 -0.91% 2 0.04% 3 0.04% 4 -0.83%
2009-1 -0.93% 1 -2.81% 2 1.86% 3 3.89% 4 2.01%
2013-1 -0.30% 1 0.53% 2 0.12% 3 0.34% 4 0.69%
2017-1 0.05% 1 -0.24% 2 -0.52% 3 -0.53% 4 -1.24%
2021-1 -0.60% 1 -0.11% 2 1.54% 3 1.76% 4 2.59%
Avg -0.36% -0.71% 0.61% 1.10% 0.64%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Averages -0.13% 0.13% 0.59% 0.57% 1.16%
%Winners 40% 40% 80% 67% 47%
MDD 4/7/2009 3.72% -- 3/27/1997 1.54% -- 4/17/1973 1.37%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Averages 0.21% 0.18% 0.24% 0.44% 1.07%
% Winners 50% 55% 63% 77% 60%
SPX PY1
Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1953-1 -1.46% 1 -1.25% 2 -0.16% 3 -0.08% 4 -2.95%
1957-1 -0.20% 1 0.16% 2 0.13% 3 0.73% 4 0.82%
1961-1 -0.11% 1 0.05% 2 0.85% 3 0.20% 4 0.99%
1965-1 0.43% 1 0.11% 2 0.23% 3 -0.10% 4 0.67%
1969-1 0.41% 5 -0.09% 2 -0.63% 3 -0.10% 4 -0.41%
1973-1 -0.57% 1 -0.45% 2 0.54% 3 0.56% 4 0.09%
1977-1 -0.99% 1 -0.22% 2 -0.10% 3 0.35% 4 -0.97%
1981-1 -1.01% 1 -0.35% 2 1.12% 3 0.40% 4 0.15%
Avg -0.35% -0.20% 0.23% 0.22% -0.09%
1985-1 0.34% 1 -0.41% 2 -0.79% 3 -0.04% 4 -0.90%
1989-1 -0.95% 1 0.49% 2 -0.29% 3 -0.52% 4 -1.27%
1993-1 0.20% 1 -0.26% 2 0.36% 3 -0.20% 4 0.10%
1997-1 0.86% 1 -0.23% 2 0.18% 3 -2.10% 4 -1.29%
2001-1 0.81% 1 2.71% 2 -0.21% 3 1.51% 4 4.82%
Avg 0.25% 0.46% -0.15% -0.27% 0.29%
2005-1 -0.49% 1 -1.02% 2 0.07% 3 -0.09% 4 -1.54%
2009-1 -0.83% 1 -2.39% 2 1.18% 3 3.81% 4 1.76%
2013-1 -0.33% 1 0.78% 2 -0.06% 3 0.41% 4 0.79%
2017-1 0.07% 1 -0.14% 2 -0.38% 3 -0.68% 4 -1.13%
2021-1 -0.09% 1 -0.32% 2 0.36% 3 1.18% 4 1.14%
Avg -0.34% -0.62% 0.24% 0.92% 0.21%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Averages -0.22% -0.16% 0.13% 0.29% 0.05%
%Winners 39% 33% 56% 50% 56%
MDD 4/7/2009 3.20% -- 4/2/1953 2.92% -- 3/27/1997 2.15%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Averages 0.16% 0.10% 0.10% 0.34% 0.70%
% Winners 50% 50% 52% 69% 66%
Conclusion
There is no reason to believe this decline is over.
I believe the market was manipulated last Wednesday. Probably by market makers who had a multi billion dollar reason to arrest the decline, at least to the end of the coming week. There has NEVER been a nearly 10% rally on a day with more than 1000 new lows on both markets.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (for the 3rd week) and Precious Metals while the weakest were Energy and Banks.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Thursday April 17 than they were on Friday April 11.
Last week's negative forecast was a miss.
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