An illuminating finish to a week that began with slight negativity and dose of indecision, leaves the S&P mildly comfortably above the 50-DMA. Many of the technicians around presume the 'correction' is over; and I hope so. But I'd expect at minimum a spate of testing following today's October Expiration.

We also noticed about 3 sessions ago that breadth was a better reflection of a market that just didn't want to 'fold'. Now most presumptions are premature in another sense; because this was a monthly Expiration and expected to be on the favorable side at least for the Index, and indeed it was.

As noted yesterday; better deciphering of the significance of the rebound may be assessed in the coming week; as the tendency is for markets to 'attempt' a countermove more often than not. That doesn't mean it will go down or stay in a renewed negative mode, but does mean odds favor a 'try' to settle back.

Because this market is so dominated by big-cap management of enormous capitalization stocks (even the term mega-cap is insufficient); there's no doubt they'll try to move the chips around (not referring only to semiconductors this time) enough to prevent any immediate risk of a significant breakdown. To do this they'll want Banks and Oil to maintain relative strength 'in the field'.

This weekend we won't belabor market influences as few if any have changed at all. China may be a little tamer, since nothing has 'cracked' open beyond all that we heard before beyond Evergrande. Oil's still holding solidly pushing 82 now; and I noted technical measures as high as 92; but doesn't mean it hits it.

At the same time high Oil, and pricing for everything mostly, so far, apparently hasn't dissuaded consumers.. that's unlikely to persist if energy prices remain disconcertingly 'too' strong into the Winter. We wanted strong and stable, but not off the wall inflation; and that's what is being faced despite rhetoric saying prices are going down (generally they're not).

The Dollar weakened only slightly then firmed again. About 40% of Nasdaq stocks are off 10% or more from their Summer highs; while that's not so for an S&P, heavily dominated by mega-caps. Hence our view that internals already were corrected and could only erode slightly while the Index adjusted; so far it is essentially what we've seen. We have said corrections, not catastrophe, as indeed that's been, and hopefully remains, the case.

There are stocks that act poorly but most we either don't like particularly or for that matter have been prematurely optimistic. The former would include what is already believed to be competitive disadvantage developing for Netflix, by HBO Max and eventually Apple TV+, which most everyone ignored so far. (I noted that Apple is building a huge multi-building 'campus' in Culver City, part of West Los Angeles; a stones throw from LAX but also almost adjacent to the Sony (old Columbia Pictures) studios. Makes one ponder 'their' future.)

The miserable performance of AT&T is an embarrassment, and with everyone so negative, I'd venture they'll get a better grip but it will take some time. Their spin-off over-the-top television is DirecTV Stream. It joins Warner/Discovery in the 'new' company; but they failed to delineate how many shares exchanged will go to AT&T shareholders. The chatter is 1 share of Warner/Discovery for each 6 shares held of 'T'; but nobody knows.

That uncertainty plus dividend cut prospects (again ill-defined) are not what conservative investors want to hear. Once it's clarified, and 'if' the total return looks favorable; current prices will look attractive. Meanwhile they are heavily focused on debt reduction; that is a management priority, and will use huge cash-flow to build out their fiber network. And to answer a question; no I don't see low-earth-orbit satellites as a competitor, but rather a compliment to fiber. Why? Because for years ahead, the issue of space-to-earth latency or lag will limit the throughput and seamless communications 'urban' folks expect. But it will be a godsend for those in rural areas or where cable service is really bad.

In sum: there's effectively no change in my market outlook; so next week will possibly provide evidence as to whether we can really already be more comfy with this market. It's possible; but there's nothing discounting a financial crisis, if one were to emerge. Aside China we don't see that at the moment.

We'll see if this still-extended and newly revived S&P expected into October Expiration, is able to extend without faltering. I'm not at all convinced it will be that easy; but also don't look for catastrophe.