A myriad of variables confront investors and managers determining how to trade or handle April; and we suspect it's not as obvious as so many think. Of course if the war persists (or heaven-forbid worsens); sure you get more than a 20% peak-to-trough S&P decline, which we already had with the expected, if more than requisite, rebound. But what if it's not that long-term trendline the majority of chartists look at from 2009; but 'ours' from the 2020 'Inger Bottom' pronouncement on March 23 two years ago.

Of course it's still extended, behaving sloppy in see-saw fashion; along with downtrodden stocks remaining just that; while mega-caps rotationally 'stall'. But if you look at the long-term trendline from 2020's low (I called it a 'cycle' low and at the time bear market bottom, and so far it has been).. viewing it in that manner you don't see the rebound as the last gasp before collapse, but as a corrective move before possibly grinding-out more upside.

That's of course not easy; because even if we get 'peace' (no assurances for sure) you still have the Fed concern, although the market would do their work for them by defanging inflation without so much agitation by the central bank). And besides, the economy so far isn't really as weak or as ebullient as some think. It depends; because society is about as 'bifurcated' as are the markets.

Bits & Bytes . . just notes on a couple things: the direction the Fed takes us may not be as brutal if things allow deflating of price spikes aside their actions and besides they don't have the clout to really impact supply-contraint inflation. All the same they'd probably claim credit or slowing excess if it occurs.

Real estate is going to be heavier; supply and demand are getting closer and it presages prices descending even more. Shortages become gluts; and we're going to see that in Autos too; after the chip/supply chain catches up. Plant shutdowns by both Ford and General Motors play to prolonging prices at high levels for now; but not for long. I suspect part of it (and the dropping of a few models of cars too) reflects the looming flood of new EV variations.

By the way some are spinning Friday's attack on a 'fuel depot' in Russia as a false flag by Moscow; or a stunning counterattack on Putin's forces. Ukraine's hitting Russia (which our DoD says it was a Ukrainian attack) has some failing to realize Russia understands power not passivity. To be aghast at a military target 'payback' after what Putin has done is shameful.

Realistically Ukraine is doing great militarily, while it's suffering immensely too, because of earlier delays in equipping them. I also have compassion for those ordinary Russians forced to be in this fight knowing it makes no sense at all. It is historically accurate that Ukraine needs control of the air so this might likely be over if they had not just the old MiGs they cant get'; but a handful of F-15's or F-16's. To avoid a protracted sustainment phase of the war; Ukraine needs to get its pilots in effective jets to really push the Russians back to the Volga. I think all the Russian soldiers who insanely dug trenches in polluted areas that surround Chernobyl, are mystified by Moscow's lack of planning for all that.

I understand caution; but Putin doesn't respect that and remember everything is being used to repel an aggressor. Anyway there's going to be more talking; even though the Kremlin 'said' the attack on the fuel depot might hinder that.. but it hasn't so far. In Europe there is another serious Covid wave; although at least this variant is less deadly than before. China is overreacting if it's mild; a curious excessive 'lock-down' unless there's more than meets the eye.

This promised 'briefer' Briefing leaves us ahead of a trading week preceded of course by rising negativity, primarily based on interest rate trends, technicals to be sure at critical levels for a ricochet-rebound we forecast weeks ago; and with a market that has technicians looking at the long-term trendline based on their 'assumption' it's the same cycle in S&P or NDX, that's now 13 years old.

'If' you believe the internal bear market began a year ago outside of big-caps (as a for-instance, just Apple - removed from a favored JP Morgan list Friday - and Microsoft combined equal 22% of the S&P capitalization); then we could be in a bottoming phase for 'average' or super-pummeled stocks, while most mega-caps are behaving shakier; probably why so many 'hedge guys' reflect the emotions of trouble holding their existing overextended holdings together.

What few noticed was the Dow Transports being creamed on Friday. Recall old 'Dow Theory' approaches of decades ago; and that's a warning sign. But in this case, the revelation is obvious if we talk about contractions in travel as a recession looms (to the extent it does); but subtly might reflect something a bit off-key for conventional wisdom: collapsing freight rates by around 30% in the past couple weeks; and a report suggesting the so-called 'driver shortage' in trucking no long exists; with more drivers now than before the pandemic.

So perhaps the worry is shipping profit margins contract; although that relates less to airlines. So maybe it's a combination of recession fears and lower rate concerns. You'd think lower freight rates is hinting coming commodity decline, not from merely lower demand in a recession; but rather 'if' peace breaks out, Oil prices decline somewhat (not longer-term) especially if 'peace breaks out'.

No change as my suspicion the immediate downside resumes and exhausts early next week with some sort of snap-back following. The character of that will be evident technically. at the same time none of this makes provision for a ceasefire in Ukraine; although there's nothing imminent expected as of yet.