Pity French president Emmanuel Macron who got corona-virus. Since his wife is decades older than him (at high risk) he will have to isolate himself from Madame M. This may be complicated. Unlike his predecessors who visited their mistresses by hopping onto a scooter or official cars accompanied by security men, Macron also must isolate from lady friends and guards.

Today UK major stocks in the FTSE index are down because sterling is up on hopes of a deal on British EU exit. US top stocks of the biggest DJIA companies are less likely to rise than those of small cap S&P 500 or Nasdaq listed firms. Luckily it does not apply to foreign large cap shares and did not hold the DJIA back today.

The unemployment figures and the virus death toll numbers are truly awful. The death toll hit a record 3580 last week bringing the toll to 20.6 mn dead. The jobless number hit a 3 month high with 885,000 new registrations, vs a consensus estimate of only 808,000. The COVID-19 stimulus package in preparation leaves out any funding for troubled cities and states, like mine.

image source

Trump Treasury Secy Steven Mnuchin formally named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators, pushing down their home money to gain an edge. The irony is that the Trump government's own deficiencies led the dollar to fall as well—but it was not intentional.

Apart from the damage to the integrity of markets it turns out that Robinhood also hurts customers by misrepresenting the payments it imposes on trades while encouraging them to view stock investing as a game. This came with a complaint from Massachusetts yesterday and another from the SEC today. Alas, these issues will hurt the planned IPO of the Sherwood Forest “discount” brokerage.

Yet another possible vaccine source is in play after the US allowed it to proceed, the British-American Tobacco one. BATS's sub, Kentucky Bioprocesses, develops antigen proteins using tobacco plants as bio-factories. Unlike lab vaccines, those grown on tobacco plants take only 6 weeks to mature. They can be shipped out like fags, at room temperature.

India by Abhimanyu Sisodia

*The Narendra Modi government is facing something new—a challenge to its policies-- from farmers. It has a parliamentary majority and bulldozed legislation through without opposition, even contentious matters like denying Kashmir its historic special status and cutting internet access there—even for children at home because of the virus. Earlier it demonetized money leading to hundreds of suicides in 2019. Now the farmers are on the attack although many Indians think this time Modi may be in the right. His new law will let farmers sell directly on the market rather than only via local government bodies called “mandis”, giving a share of prices to local middlemen, which sounds like an improvement.

However, in India, it is not that simple. In the UA 1% of farmers own 70% of farmland. In India, 86% of farmers own nearly half the farmland—but are mostly poor with small holdings. The “mandi” system was meant to give them more negotiating power and set a minimum price if necessary boosted by government subsidies. Farmers are worried they will not be guaranteed a minimum price for their crops. Moreover, they will not be allowed to sue corporate buyers under the new law.

Farm rebels were not allowed to enter New Delhi because of covid-19 restrictions but they blockaded all the roads into India's capital. Punjabis are most active in the blockade, camping out in near-freezing temperatures. There have been daily deaths including some suicides (by a Sikh cleric).

Today the Indian Supreme Court ruled for the farmers ordering the laws to be delayed until there is an agreement. Some of the international support from Canada's Justin Trudeau is suspect. Canada is about 1% Sikh and a Sikh is Minister of Defense. Presenting the protest as being only from Sikhs is helping Modi present the protestors as separatists.

Another part of Modi's dominance is his closeness to Gujarati business 'royalty providing cheap money and supporting Gautam Adani's push to mine Australian coal despite global warming. If the farmers succeed—and they are well organized—it will be more than a win for farmers, but also one for other opponents of “iron man” Modi.

Abhimanyu also needled me for selling half our Nintendo stock, NTDOY, because is a Xmas fave.

Drug dealers

*Aurinia Pharma of Canada crashed 13% today to $13.1/sh after it made a licensing deal with Otsuka to develop and sell voclosporin for treating Lupus nephritis, a killer kidney disease that kills people with lupus (like my college classmate Ann Barry.) AUPH will license its drug not just for Japan, but also for all of Europe. Aurinia will get $50 mn in upfront cash plus as much again in milestones, plus a further 10-20% of sales receipts or higher under certain conditions. Otsuka will handle applications in Europe in H1 2021 and later in Japan. This is 2^nd bad off-share tipped by Maerin Ferera in Vancouver, down 1.65% with AUPH. Yesterday it fell after signing up long-term Swiss partner Lonza to manufacture voclosporin. This is excessive. I bought more at $13.066 in memory of Ann.

*AbCellera Biologics hit a new low after its Friday listing but ABCL now is in the black, at $48.87/sh, up over 3%. It was Martin's most recent pick. British Columbia is full of drug startups, not all-wise.

*Martin pick Zymeworks is gaining today over its complex deal over cancer drug Zanidatamab. It was briefly over $52 but lost some of that gain.

*Beigene, helping ZYME, is up 6.5% to $261+ bringing my gains to 54%. It is our 2^nd top stock today after yet a misreporting by coffee chain Luckin led to a $180 mn US fine for accounting fraud. BGNE is the honest Chinese drug trial operator and reports under international accounting standards.

*An unlikely gainer from Swiss Novartis NVS buying by Q1 2021 US Cadent Therapeutics, for $210 up front and up to $770 mn in milestones is an Israeli fund, CLAL Biotech, owner of 13% of the neurologicals firm. Another winner is NVS, long Cadent licensee. Its share jumped $1.34% to $92.2.

*Yet another vaccine against COVID-19 will have UK funded trials. French Valneva will produce a traditional whole virus vaccine in Scotland in 2021 for which there may be need because of allergies.s.

*After the collapse of its share price yesterday, Israeli Enlivex, maker of a drug against cytokine surge in covid-19 and other infections regained 10% to $11.2-11.23. ENLV high today was $11.49.

*The US FDA approved Glaxo's Benlysta to treat lupus nephritis, a kidney disease that killed my college classmate Ann. GSK also did a deal on immunotherapy against cancer with Surface Oncology paying $85 mn up front and as much as $730 mn in milestones and royalties.

*Israeli TEVA was tipped by Steve Tepper of TBI Investment advisors as a possible 50% gainer next year mainly because the charges against it have mostly been dealt with and because of its work on PVRIG antibodies to treat cancer with killer T-cells and NK cells is a potential winner. Teva fell another 0.8%.

*Pfizer's PFE vials holding the corona-virus jab are over-filled and the surplus can be used to inoculate more people. That's the good news. The bad is that vials are sometimes too cold to thaw at all. And two Alaska recipients now have had dangerous allergic reactions

Funds to go

*Lazard Global Total Return CEF LGI is upping its monthly divvy to an annualized 9.2%. LGI also produced a capital gain in the low double digits so far.

*Taiwan Fund TWN, just added to our holdings, is going to buy of to a quarter of its shares outstanding over the next 5 years if the are trading at less than 98% of net asset value. We are up 1.66% on that stake taken for political reasons.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno FBASF rose 2.51% today in Mexico to pesos 22.89. After it drew down half its revolving credit lines in April over covid-19 fears it has now paid them back.

*Swedish Investor a/b, a fund, is up 2.78% after it started divesting European telecom tower holdings.

*However Finnish counterpart Sampo Oij fell after Blackrock cut its SAXPY holdings by over 1%.

*Aberdeen Asia Pacific (FAX) and Aberdeen Global Income Funds (FCO) rose 0.9% and 1.17%.

*After Tencent got back its mojo both Naspers (South African NPSNY) and Dutch Prosus (PROSY) gained, by 4.1% and 2.1% resp. Both are invested in lots of other internet operations worldwide.

*UK Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure, AY, fell 0.08% but its part-owner Algonquin Power & Utility of Canada rose fractionally. Harry Geisel wrote up AY and Vivian has long held AQN. AY pays a yield of 4.67% essentially untaxed according to Harry.

*Spdr Gold, GLD, and the yellow metal are back in the black, over $190/sh and over $1900 per ounce. In an interview with Barron's, an ETF specialist from Aberdeen Standard, whose stock we own, talked up gold as a play for 2021.

Hazards

*BofA-Merrill says the big winners in 2021 will be Mexico and Brazil viewed as high yield countries, and not growth ones. I am not so sure after I got rectifications in Portuguese and English from CCJ, Cosan CZZ, that its ex-dividend date was wrong. We sold, but I am still on the press list. It fell 2.2%. today before recovering.

*Mexican Cemex is looking better, up 1.9% after it took its stake in CX LatAm to 93% of shares out, up from 73% earlier, according to Sentidocomun.com.mx with which we trade news.

*Canada's uranium Cameco splits analysts. Bank of Montreal raised its target price to C$18.5 from 16.5. RBC cut it to under-perform as too pricey. CCJ fell 3.71% to $12.99 so the bears win.

*Energy Fuels, UUUU, is up another 9.6% after it added rare earths to the uranium it already mines. It is our top win today.

*Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO rose to $45.3/sh after an options alert, a call expiring Friday. Now it is $44.77. The stock is periodically treated as a clone of Tesla with insufficient examination of the differences. It is Chinese and appeals to the country's car buyers. It offers a system for quick recharging of batteries which are leased rather than sold to them, using electricity surpluses at night. We sold 2/3 of our shares but I am hanging in there with the remainder.

*Pilot trainer CAE of Canada is up on news that Boeing will fund training to boost its sales. BofA upgraded its shares 2 notches to buy today. It is up 3.5% to $25.95. Patti the Biotech Maven found this one for us.

*Veoneer, the electronic offshoot of Autoliv, lost is chief tech officer today and the share dropped. We are out of both the Swedish firm whose primary listing is in the US.

*Kinder Morgan (KMI) was chopped to hold from buy by Crédit Suisse after its dividend cut because it is too dependent on carbon dioxide business using oil. Its EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell 8% but the stock fell 4x as much, wrote Jonathan Weber yesterday.