For our last data of 2023, initial jobless claims remained at a very low level, up 12,000 from one week ago to 218,000. The four-week average declined from 250 to 212,000. With the usual one-week delay, continuing claims rose 14,000 to 1.875 million:

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On a YoY% basis, initial claims are up only 2.3%, while the more important four-week average is up a mere 0.1%. Continuing claims, which have been running higher all year, are still up 15.2%. But this is the lowest comparison since the beginning of April:

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Finally, since initial claims lead the unemployment rate, and thus lead the “Sahm rule,” the monthly YoY% change in claims for December is only 0.7%, implying only a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate YoY in the months ahead:

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Needless to say, none of the YoY metrics above imply the slightest chance of recession in the immediate future.

I’ll have my usual “Weekly Indicators” update this weekend, and I plan on an end-of-year update about the COIVD situation. After that, it is on to a new year of economic data!

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