If the question seems silly, it’s because it is silly. Yet, here’s a headline to discuss: “Crucial Crypto Market Prediction Issued by Raoul Pal“

Crucial Crypto Market Prediction

Please consider Crucial Crypto Market Prediction Issued by Raoul Pal emphasis mine.

Legendary investor and market expert Raoul Pal has waded into the incessant predictions going on in the digital currency ecosystem, labeling most long-term projections as unlikely to see the light of day.

Enormous Irony

Raoul Pal did not use the word “crucial”.

However, the enormous irony is Raoul Pal makes his own long-term prediction that predicting “forecasting will go out the window” by 2030.

I think it becomes near impossible to forecast economies, society and markets beyond 2030 as we hit the exponential on everything and everything changes forever in ways we can’t yet grasp.

I am an optimist in this, even though it feels scary. Opportunities abound.

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) December 10, 2023

Forecast of the Day

• “It becomes near impossible to forecast economies.”
• “By 2030 all forecasting will go out the window”
• “There is a >20% chance that this cycle in Crypto and Exponential Age tech is an Everything, Everywhere, All at Once adoption cycle.”

Forecast Highly Unlikely to See Light of Day

There is no such thing as a “crucial prediction“.

The idea is ridiculous. So is the forecast “All forecasting will go out the window by 2030.”

Hoot of the Day Irony

If you are looking for a forecast highly unlikely to see the light of day, look no further than Raoul’s forecast that crypto is in an “All at once adoption cycle” making forecasting “near impossible”.

Looking Ahead

I do not think the existing central bank setup based on US dollar dominance can last. But no one has any idea, especially Bitcoin advocates, about the replacement.

I am reluctant to say never, but that is roughly what I think about a mass adoption of Bitcoin by governments, ever.

No Mass Adoption of Bitcoin

There will not be mass adoption of Bitcoin for three easy to explain reasons.

1. Governments will not give up their ability to inflate at will.
2. Governments will not turn money supply over to an algorythm.
3. Bitcoin is too damn volatile to use as money.

Even if the third condition were to vanish by some miracle, points one and two won’t.

And it won’t be the yuan or a BRICS-backed replacement either. If you disagree, then dispute three articles I have written on the subject.

BRICS Success? When?

July 7, 2023: More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar

August 24, 2023: BRICS+ Is Forecast to Dominate the World’s GDP, But What Does That Mean?

August 25, 2023: What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?

BRICS hype has lasted for a decade. Expect it to continue despite the fact that it fails six of six necessary conditions.

When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level?

However, enormous problems remain and the current path is not sustainable.

An interesting article by Penn Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, says the limit of debt as a percentage of GDP is about 200 percent, When does that happen?

For discussion, please see When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level?

We are on an unsustainable path. I hope we can all agree on that.

But predicting when this all blows up, and how, is a fool’s mission. Regardless, we can say Bitcoin is not the logical answer for the three reasons I listed above.

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