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During the .com bubble, the Nasdaq gained 1,322% from its 1990 low to the March 2000 peak. 

If we repeated that performance from 2016's low of 4,267, the Nasdaq would hit 60,676 today.

We're at 22,789.

So when someone tells you we're in a bubble, show them that math.

What Real Bubble Velocity Looks Like
 

The .com crash wasn't just "stocks went down." From October 1998 to March 2000, the Nasdaq exploded from 1,420 to 5,049. That's 255% in 17 months. At the index level.

Not some individual meme stock. The entire Nasdaq Composite.

Then it fell 78% over the next two years, wiping out $5 trillion and sending hundreds of companies to zero.

Where We Actually Stand
 

Since that 2016 low? We're up 434%. Sounds like a lot until you realize that's spread over nine years, not the 17 months it took for a true bubble to gain 255%.

The math is simple: Bubble velocity versus bull market velocity. We're not even close.

The REAL Bubble Is Coming

Here's what's actually interesting: Fed rate cuts during earnings growth are extremely rare outside of bubble periods. The 1995-1999 setup saw exactly this - cuts while corporate profits soared, fueling the mania.

We're seeing those same conditions now. 

Technology leading (35% of S&P 500 weight), rate cuts during earnings growth, and the "soft landing" narrative everyone believes.

But we haven't hit bubble velocity yet. When the Nasdaq gains 100% in 12 months, like it did in 1999, then we can talk bubble.

What This Means for You
 

Real bubbles create generational wealth before they destroy it. The trick is recognizing the difference between a bull market and actual mania.

Next time someone screams bubble, ask them for the velocity. Ask them what 255% in 17 months looks like versus 434% in nine years.

Then remember: If you're waiting for "reasonable" valuations to invest, you'll miss the entire mania phase where fortunes get made.

The numbers don't lie. The bubble callers do.

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