Wheat

General Comments: All three markets were higher as the weather market continued and this time featured dry weather in southern Russia. Crop size estimates there have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. Minneapolis gave the most ground on Friday and remains locked in a trading range for the last few weeks. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather but a few showers are possible in the region this week. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.

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Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below
normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 763 and 815 September. Support is at 711, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 749, 767, and 774 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 646 September. Support is at 678, 658, and 649 September, with resistance at 706, 724, and 774 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 900, 888, and 879 September, and resistance is at 948, 9454, and 960 September.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed lower as traders anticipate weaker production. The harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana but the harvest is coming now. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending sideways to lower.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1349, 1344, and 1334 September, with resistance at 1368, 1389, and 1399 September.

Corn and Oats

General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday as demand ideas improved and the export inspections report showed a large volume of shipments. The shipments were over 1.0 million tons and caught the market by surprise as the sales reports had indicated weak demand for right now. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil's Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little higher on the uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.. Support is at 545, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 559, 564, and 568 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 424 September. Support is at 440, 436, and 424 September, and resistance is at 450, 464, and 470 September.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans were higher and the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil lower along with weakness in Palm Oil futures. Soybean Meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil and the strength in Soybeans. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in the central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but western Iowa got very beneficial rain over the weekend. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry. The longer-range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1342, 1337, and 1316 September, and resistance is at 1390, 1392, and 1431 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 339.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6310, 6200, and 6090 September, with resistance at 6520, 6650, and 6780 September.

Canola and Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil closed sharply lower today on less than expected July export volumes quoted by the private sources. Traders prepared on Friday for bad demand news today from the private sources as the export pace is expected to be less in July. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was closed for a holiday yesterday. Canola closed lower last week on what was called speculative selling caused in part by a stronger Canadian Dollar. The stronger currency hurt demand ideas but production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in the Canadian Prairies and northern US Great Plains. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 739.00 November. Support is at 834.00, 807.00, and 796.00 November, with resistance at 866.00, 882.00, and 906.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3965 October. Support is at 4090, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 4300, 4370, and 4480 October.