MARKETS

A whirlwind of weekend polls has turned up the heat in the showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Across the nation and critical swing states, voters are split right down the middle. High-stakes bettors swarmed “Polymarket,” throwing shade to Trump and sunshine to Harris, narrowing the betting polls and stirring up fresh volatility in early Monday currency trades. By the Wellington Open, USD/JPY was already down over 75 basis points, dipping below 152.25, as traders scrambled to adjust to what’s shaping up to be the ultimate nail-biter.

This coin-flip election could serve Wall Street's heavyweights a buffet of policy shifts, sparking strategic moves faster than you can say “rate cut.”

Having weathered four U.S. elections from the FICC hot seat in Singapore, I can vouch for the thrill (and chaos) of these market moments—especially Trump’s jaw-dropping 2016 upset.

With the world’s markets currently orbiting the U.S. election and a Fed rate decision around the corner, Monday is primed for a frenzy of position adjustment as investors gobble up every new poll, prediction, and betting line like popcorn at a thriller. The election drama will likely hog the spotlight for the next 48–72 hours, relegating other news, earnings, and even economic data to the back row.

As the presidential odds tighten, the dollar and bond yields show signs of softening, almost as if the markets themselves are taking a deep, collective exhale. This subtle easing hints that Asian markets might be ready to rally, sparking a wave of short-covering. Speculators could be inclined to back off their trade tension bets, setting up a broad-based market lift. But the real question is: will this be enough to wake the sleeping giants and stir the animal spirits? With the Fed teasing a 25-basis-point rate cut this Thursday—and maybe another one just around the corner—markets may find themselves teetering on the edge, waiting to see if they’ll tip into full-blown bullish enthusiasm. The fuse is lit; all left is to see if it’ll spark a roaring blaze or just a flicker.

Historically, expectations of a Fed rate cut have ignited global market rallies, setting off a chain reaction of bullish fervor. But this time, the razor-thin election margin has everyone holding their breath. With the outcome balanced on a knife’s edge, that wildcard of “uncertainty” looms large, potentially capping any full-throttle bullish exuberance. Investors may tread carefully, caught between the allure of Fed easing and the intrigue of the election’s unpredictable impact. Buckle up—this high-stakes week promises a roller coaster ride where just about anything could happen, and where caution may be the difference between reaping rewards and nursing regrets.

Beijing’s recent economic support measures may be losing their initial dazzle, but all eyes are already shifting to the main event: the National People’s Congress kicking off on November 4. Markets are alive with whispers of a fresh stimulus package, setting expectations sky-high and creating a buzz that’s hard to ignore.

Meanwhile, Japan takes a breather on Monday for Culture Day, meaning yen liquidity will be lighter than usual. With Tokyo markets closed, yen trading could get choppier than usual, especially as the latest U.S. election betting poll swings fuel the already smouldering volatility.

Yet Another Curveball from OPEC+

OPEC+ just threw another curveball at oil analysts, delaying its much-anticipated December production boost by a month—a second deferral that speaks volumes about the group’s delicate dance with volatile demand and fragile economic outlooks. Initially slated to add 180,000 barrels a day starting in December, the Saudi and Russian-led coalition is keeping the taps tightened, citing a need to steady prices and recalibrate amid global economic tremors. This strategic decision, revealed on OPEC’s website, underscores just how much the group is feeling the pinch as faltering demand in China and a growing supply wave from the Americas cast a long shadow over the market.

Brent crude has taken a punishing 17% dive over the past four months, hovering around $73 a barrel—far below the comfort zone needed for Saudi Arabia and many other OPEC+ players to cover their government spending. For the second time, global demand dynamics took the upper hand as OPEC+ wrestled with macroeconomic realities centred on weaker oil growth projections out of China and Europe. By pushing back the production hike, they’re also buying time—two months, in fact—for China’s stimulus efforts to trickle down through its energy markets, allowing for a more calculated approach when the eventual supply uptick arrives.

Yet, for all the maneuvering, another production delay may do little more than prompt a short-lived bounce. Many traders anticipated the move, and the bearish momentum could continue to barrel ahead without a global economic revival. Structural changes in China’s electric vehicle sector and a looming supply glut expected in 2025 point toward oil prices possibly drifting into the low $60s by early next year, barring any major geopolitical upheaval involving Iran’s oil infrastructure. But uncertainty reigns, with wildcards like the U.S. election and the ongoing Eastern European conflict adding thick layers of unpredictability to an already tense market landscape. This week, OPEC+ may have pressed the pause button—but the market roller coaster is far from over.

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