US Dollar Index Bets See Slight Rebound Back Into Bullish Level
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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level
Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.
The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.
Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning
- Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
- Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
- Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
- Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
- British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
- Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
- New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.
Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:
– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.
Currencies Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)
Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.2 | 28.6 | 7.6 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 54.0 | 25.2 | 13.2 |
– Net Position: | 617 | 968 | -1,585 |
– Gross Longs: | 15,748 | 8,021 | 2,123 |
– Gross Shorts: | 15,131 | 7,053 | 3,708 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.0 | 96.0 | 8.8 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.3 | -2.0 | -7.8 |
Euro Currency Futures:
The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 56.0 | 12.9 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.4 | 73.7 | 5.8 |
– Net Position: | 82,764 | -138,285 | 55,521 |
– Gross Longs: | 202,786 | 437,677 | 100,625 |
– Gross Shorts: | 120,022 | 575,962 | 45,104 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.3 | 34.1 | 96.6 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.8 | -6.9 | 5.8 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.4 | 31.9 | 15.8 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.3 | 52.9 | 9.9 |
– Net Position: | 35,215 | -48,965 | 13,750 |
– Gross Longs: | 103,672 | 74,588 | 36,963 |
– Gross Shorts: | 68,457 | 123,553 | 23,213 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.1 | 43.6 | 91.1 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.0 | -9.7 | 18.5 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.8 | 27.4 | 12.2 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.5 | 75.3 | 5.5 |
– Net Position: | 151,149 | -175,508 | 24,359 |
– Gross Longs: | 189,514 | 100,151 | 44,497 |
– Gross Shorts: | 38,365 | 275,659 | 20,138 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 4.9 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 92.3 | 6.7 | 100.0 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.8 | 63.8 | 18.9 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.8 | 32.0 | 18.7 |
– Net Position: | -26,066 | 25,884 | 182 |
– Gross Longs: | 7,145 | 51,879 | 15,409 |
– Gross Shorts: | 33,211 | 25,995 | 15,227 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.1 | 41.7 | 79.5 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.2 | -1.4 | 6.1 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.9 | 79.5 | 8.9 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.1 | 38.5 | 9.7 |
– Net Position: | -108,446 | 110,625 | -2,179 |
– Gross Longs: | 18,667 | 214,704 | 23,967 |
– Gross Shorts: | 127,113 | 104,079 | 26,146 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.4 | 60.5 | 37.7 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.5 | 15.9 | 10.9 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.8 | 64.5 | 11.5 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.0 | 34.3 | 10.5 |
– Net Position: | -63,155 | 61,195 | 1,960 |
– Gross Longs: | 23,969 | 130,735 | 23,307 |
– Gross Shorts: | 87,124 | 69,540 | 21,347 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.5 | 66.4 | 54.3 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.1 | 6.4 | -5.8 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.0 | 75.8 | 6.5 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 48.9 | 41.1 | 6.4 |
– Net Position: | -23,674 | 23,601 | 73 |
– Gross Longs: | 9,531 | 51,514 | 4,419 |
– Gross Shorts: | 33,205 | 27,913 | 4,346 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.1 | 60.7 | 54.4 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.7 | -4.3 | 8.0 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.4 | 32.7 | 3.6 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.2 | 72.4 | 2.1 |
– Net Position: | 64,449 | -66,946 | 2,497 |
– Gross Longs: | 93,401 | 55,198 | 6,108 |
– Gross Shorts: | 28,952 | 122,144 | 3,611 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 3.2 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.6 | 39.8 | 36.6 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.9 | -12.6 | 7.3 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 64.3 | 30.9 | 4.7 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.3 | 70.6 | 1.0 |
– Net Position: | 30,793 | -33,919 | 3,126 |
– Gross Longs: | 54,954 | 26,403 | 4,014 |
– Gross Shorts: | 24,161 | 60,322 | 888 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 4.5 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.5 | 29.4 | 38.5 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.5 | 14.2 | 7.5 |
Bitcoin Futures:
The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 80.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 |
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 88.7 | 1.5 | 3.3 |
– Net Position: | -2,312 | 1,949 | 363 |
– Gross Longs: | 24,084 | 2,407 | 1,341 |
– Gross Shorts: | 26,396 | 458 | 978 |
– Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 5.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
NET POSITION TREND: | |||
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.9 | 100.0 | 56.1 |
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -32.9 | 29.8 | 8.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the ...
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