How much of a 'thaw' - occurs before the next squall is a debate. For stocks, beyond the miserable weather in much of the Country it's similar with pockets of clarity but not great visibility, into what comes next.

Freepik

We've had in-mind the stumble of January's first half, followed by improvement into early February as a general guideline, but it's not so simple. And it's not due to domestic politics.

Mostly it's the question as to whether we're stumbling into not just a wider war but a preamble for a broader conflict, potentially far beyond the Middle East. I do understand 'why', if a war with Iran is going to occur, it's better now than in the months 'after' they have a nuclear weapon available (if not so already).

Is all this impacting the markets? Not much, again (Oct. 7 Hamas barbarism as well did little to markets). However Oil will ultimately react to this and also the S&P, while prices (to the extent they can be blamed on Oil or transit costs for example) won't be easing much during such an economic embargo, which this would essentially be on Europe. Does it get to that? No because NATO .. yes NATO .. won't let that happen. Hence western countries 'man up' more.

(Note: *imported was meant to be improved breadth, needless to say.)

Candidly, I fear the two missing SEAL Team members in the Gulf of Aden are not exactly missing, but KIA. They were part of a team 'properly' boarding that small ship carrying weapons materials from Iran to Yemen and possibly were casualties of that assault. The ship was 'sunk' later, the weapons retained and the crew, disposition of which is unknown, detained. Probably the Pentagon is not describing the missing SEALS as 'Killed in Action', as they would be initial Allied personnel losses in this conflict. I hope they are recovered regardless, I noted during the weekend media didn't even explore what the mission was 'til Monday and now they candidly acknowledge the guys were part of that team.

Market X-Ray:

Well, the NY Empire State Survey was very soft, so you're back to the ying-yang of what matters more here, a friendlier Fed (almost assured), or poor earnings from business (and not so for many businesses). Hence the uncertainty in markets, and the short-term ominous view of double-top S&P.

I suspect Wednesday will be down a bit then bounce.. hearing that Iran today attacked Sunni's in Pakistan (yup) likely upsets the Saudi's and yes beyond a Gaza conflict, we are a bit mixed-up in the never-ending Sunni/Shite clash. As the U.S. is about to put the Houthis back on the 'terrorist' group list, and respond to the latest attack again, this isn't over.

More tomorrow here and on 'X' ... Oil should rally soon.

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Market Briefing For Tuesday, January 16
Market Briefing For Tuesday, January 9
Market Briefing For Monday, January 8