Persistent pause sort of summarizes this erratic month thus far. However, a stumble and indecisive shuffling happens to be what we'd look for in early '24.

Not exciting, but part of the evolution. Even if war doesn't explode (it already expanded, so that term is essentially moot), and this is a Bull Market starting from our October washout low, it still has challenges to confront or overcome.

Confronting will be wider war (and whether Iran is dragged themselves into it or not), while overcome relates to the bifurcated economic as bantering about when and how many Fed rate cuts will be forthcoming (they will be as 'flation persists at the same time its pace is slower; Fed knows it's an Election Year).

I'm going to touch on 'risks' and then 'money costs' and why released funds of my generation as baby-boomers and demographics change, shifts everything. I think 'climate change' contributes too; as insurance rates near the coasts are insane; hence other than billionaires self-insuring; that era of 'aspiring' to live at the seashore, should be over aside holidays or respites..except for 'elites'.

And they (mostly insanely buying in Miami Beach Star Island for instance) are going to have an awakening that should have occurred after Sanibel recently. It will just take one significant hurricane to turn much of that area back to the 'barrier islands' that they originally were (Miami Beach included by the way). If you saw the collapsed condo seawalls etc. near Daytona Beach; same thing; but they actually have more elevation (6-9') vs. South Beach or Brickell (1-4').

Aside frustration over domestic policies, monetary inertia now; or Elections in a state of chaos, we noted Climate Change. The chart above suggest majority belief that weather and compelled (away from coastal area) migration possibly is the major economic consideration that markets aren't allowing for, and most communities (not just families) are unable to confront financially. Insurance off the chart (high rates) is just a sample of the actuarial realization of this trend.

As for our Fed policy; markets aren't really over-anticipating 4 or 6 Funds rate cuts; since most stocks are still cheaper; and small caps will likely improve as the year matures. An aging population (trend) and geopolitics (the latter key) remain big wild cards. We focus on the latter now; and the former as unfolds. In the 'natural rate of interest' chart you can extrapolate baby-boomers exiting the speculation scene, the housing seen; with more healthcare demands and traveling (while they can, to be candid); with no real replacement generation; as the 'younguns' tend to overspend so commonly find it hard to maintain any real semblance of prosperous living or pace, unless they inherit it.

Market X-Ray: the high-level S&P shuffle persists; with little change overall.

Nothing has changed with regard to the market; other than the PPI assisting to offset the prior CPI. Markets (all big and small) generally shuffling narrowly.

I feel that it is necessary to observe no progress in Ukraine; not to be overlooked. Midst of Winter so not much movement; but Russia has been increasing production of munitions, probably with less corruption depleting ammo.

During this 'real war',neither Russia's economy nor Russian currency stayed in a collapsed fashion, while anti-Russian sanctions have been effective as it denied normal life to people; but have increased the internal self-sufficiency of Russia with regarding to armaments (horrible earlier). This suggests that this war has been protracted. So as suggested a year ago, could have before now ameliorated into a 'settled' situation; sort of letting both sides declare victory. It is not a popular view to suggest negotiations; but if not you'll see American as well as British and other jet fighters enter the skies to defend Ukraine soon.

Canalys' latest report predicts a significant 27% increase in the total number of new energy vehicles globally by 2024, with an estimated 17.5 million units.

Bottom line: all previously discussed variables persist; so does S&P pattern.

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Market Briefing For Tuesday, January 9
Market Briefing For Monday, January 8
Market Briefing For Thursday, January 4