Discretion is the better part of valor, both in stocks and in geopolitics for now. I focus in this issue primarily on the Middle East, as that could sow the seeds of better times, or a descent into a feared conflagration (which is unlikely if the Iranian mullahs stay out of it; if they learned a lesson from their April attempts to attack Israel). While many Israelis do not support Netanyahu, few would be opposed to the benefits of eliminating Hezbollah; including most Lebanese.

In this case the importance of this 'engagement' in Lebanon could prove to be a seminal event, essentially rivaling the 'Six-Day War' outcome, as far as what happens next in the region. Israel is showing vast technological dominance. In that respect it's somewhat reminiscent of 1967, when Arab armies were larger and thought they could overwhelm the small State, but were terribly mistaken.

I think this matters not just to Oil prices but regional stability (hence the Saudi bias in favor of Israel); and is not appreciated by virtually any Muslim country. The world can criticize how Gaza was handled; but non-Muslim countries for the most part overlooked limited willingness of Muslim expats to assimilate in other countries, unlike almost every religion or ethic group of the past. Those in the West who see this (East too.. just look at Russian and Chinese similar concerns) recognize Islam as more of a 'cult' than a religion; but say that in a public forum and one will be called Islamophobic, warranted or not. Or go ask the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, essentially overthrown by what are anti-women Asian Islamists, and that's barely getting reported in the West.

There is more concern of direct Iranian attacks on Israel following this; and if that's a development it's foolhardy on Iran's part and invites a serious Israeli attack. In that case (if it happens) the USAF and Navy will likely become very involved too. It was a big mistake for Hezbollah to align themselves with the Hamas terrorists; and for Iran to attack Israel before (in the world's largest or most extensive use of ballistic missiles 'ever', which was repelled). If they do try again, the military / Islamist establishment of Iran will be crippled as well; and in Iran's case people might finally get a chance to overthrow the regime.

Market X-ray: I would say that Israel tipped the odds in their favor with the preparation that's crippled Hezbollah communications and leadership; and hence the likely o.k. to wrap this up in a sense by taking-out the leader (shy of getting Iran itself). If there is 'unrest' among the people; that's hard to say; but there is opportunity for Israel to 'try' to work with the 'actual' government of Lebanon for stability.

How does this impact the U.S. market? Perhaps not much; perhaps helps the price level sustain, as there's no domestic impediment at the moment; while of course we're still concerned about October, for various reasons noted before.

So far I do not see the Lebanon situation as an 'escalation', but rather efforts to allow Lebanon to assert its own hegemony over the terrorist domination. It can be an effort to get Lebanon's Army to stop the Hezbollah interlopers after so many years. This is not Gaza, which is not a country. Lebanon is a country which was hijacked and infiltrated so long ago (post PLO) by Hezbollah. They have infiltrated even Canada and the US, along with parts of South America. I don't know if Americans recognize how insidious their terrorism has been. So it is a big seminal event, like Netanyahu or not, Gaza policies notwithstanding.

The 'evaluation' in Israel is that the Hezbollah leadership is now eliminated, which would be why Tehran says they're taking charge (haven't they before?). This will now decide whether open 'ground' warfare follows with Hezbollah or if this is the brief window to allow a ceasefire and vindicate Netanyahu's tough policy, at least with Lebanon if not with Gaza. In Lebanon it was 'genius' to get so many terrorists eliminated (and/or at least ID'd) before fighting escalated.

Israel has landed a significant blow against terror, whether the leader is dead or not. And it probably signals a beginning of the end of other proxies..Houthi.. which would be a reason Saudi Arabia does not oppose what Israel's doing. I would note Hezbollah is the 'crown jewel' of Iran's terror tentacles; and a huge blow for Tehran mullahs if they're basically 'done'. It's  notable that people are 'celebrating' in Beirut .. we'll see where that leads.

Meanwhile ... Friday was very quiet for individual stocks - mixed behavior in small stocks; consolidation in big stocks

Bottom line: we focused on the Middle East as a lot was unfolding while the New York market was open; and nobody is reporting the significance. That will relate to an Israeli strike hitting the Hezbollah HQ 'concurrently' with a terrorist meeting at which even back-up leaders were present. Hard to imagine Israeli intelligence is that good; but you never know. It may be Hezbollah's 'end'.

Stocks are trying to wind-up September in a firm fashion; a bit more to go; as well as variables including geopolitics. Don't ignore the significance of 'threats' and 'plots' against American and European leaders by Iranian agents, which I would say might alone be sufficient to 'green-light' the kind of attack you saw; or may see 'if' Tehran is bold enough to take the free world on. And Russia, as they view all this, needs to butt-out and not try a diversion attack on Ukraine. I think if Putin stopped to think; he'd realize Ukrainians never want to be part of Russia; not before and definitely not after the horror Putin brought.

Meanwhile Consumer Sentiment is sort of above estimates, so that reinforces the 'softish' landing and continued 'friendlier' Fed policy stance. Happy rest!

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Market Briefing For - Friday, Sept 27
Market Briefing For - Thursday, September 26
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Sept 25