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A 'restrained' advance - is fine; given expectations of running big-cap shorts in more, before any serious shakeout (barring exogenous events) threatens the S&P. I note it as 'the S&P', because smaller stocks aren't doing much, and the heavy lifting continues to be borne by the mega-cap leaders.

However, we don't want to be complacent; we are concerned about October; at the same time that 'areas that benefit from domestic consumption' sort of seem to be alright (I say 'seem' because other subjective consumer factors aren't entirely aligned with the 'official' data); hence the final Q2 growth data.

You can add China and Micron to the 'so-called' favorable mix (and they are); but I noted last night the futures were soaring on reports France (benefactor of Lebanon in the old days) and the United States were working on a 3-week or longer ceasefire deal. I think it's progressing; because Hezbollah finds itself in a lose-lose proposition. If they give up they lose faith with stupid followers; if they fight significantly they'll lose, even though Israel doesn't really desire to repeat Ariel Sharon's adventure a couple decades ago; and if they 'do' accept a 'ceasefire', they manage to leave matters in-abeyance; perhaps UN forces actually do their job to keep Hezbollah 18 miles from the border (Litani river).

Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is a 'real' country, despite largely being hijacked by the Hezbollah terrorists once the PLO and splinter groups were run-out years ago (given the leadership decimation there are few of the older radical leaders left and that's going to hobble Hezbollah's influence regardless. Perhaps France, for one, and certainly the near-majority Christian population, counts on that.

Market X-ray: this hurricane day (or was supposed to be..fortunately, nothing as yet, but evening looms) is still pending for the Florida panhandle or sure, Georgia and elsewhere. As of 4 pm ET there's virtually no rain in Southern or Central Florida, much less anything more concerning. Hope it stays that way! (It probably won't, which is why I'm sending this Briefing earlier than often.. we had one brief power outage so far; at least a blessing not to be near Helene.)

Saudi Arabia talks of 'capturing back their markets' by increasing production; a reason Oil prices dropped further; extending the 'bleak' supply-based drop. Of course that works favorably for inflation influences; and I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sort of 'deal' is involved (with the U.S.) to get them to ramp production. I don't trust such deals, not Riyadh at all. There is precedence.

Meanwhile, Semiconductors tried to regain leadership based on Micron's jump; and we're fine with that (after all we own just a few). This SOX bounce is off a lateral high (longer-term chart) and after this successful test probably will have trouble extending very much further near-term. We'll see. NVDA of course remains at the core of holding the sector together also. We're fine with Semi's longer-term; while worried about those and others as far as October.

Bottom-line: this is stretching; it is vulnerable to 'exhaustion factors', besides the geopolitical risks we all know about. Of course a Middle East ceasefire in a sense would soften the short-term risk; although Putin could still be a spoiler in Ukraine; but again these are concerns as S&P muddles towards October in record territory (or range-bound at high levels).

Keep in mind my caveat about October 'when' a September is strong (rare by itself, but again this market and world is so bifurcated). China stimulus helps the world picture; so does the Saudi Oil market share recapture effort (that's a strange task since it won't prevent new areas of global supply from opening); a reason why I suspect the hands of certain politicians involved... see if some sort of sudden military equipment deal surfaces, or even more evidence of the 'continued' desire for a security arrangement 'with' Israel in the region. We are not against that at all; just observing 'quid pro quo'; the Saudi's are 'traders'.

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Market Briefing For - Thursday, September 26
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Sept 25
Market Briefing For Tuesday, Sept 24